Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sunderland play Leeds at home on 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Stadium of Light (Sunderland); the referee is Stuart Attwell. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sunderland vs Leeds: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sunderland are 20th in the table, on 5 points after 9 matches (1W 2D 6L), and Leeds are 12th, on 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Sunderland score 0.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.0; for Leeds the figures are 1.3 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Sunderland: 1W 1D 5L, goals 6–14; Leeds: 2W 4D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. From 11 meetings: 3 wins for Sunderland, 3 wins for Leeds and 5 draws, with the goals at 8–9.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (13.0%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Under 2.5 goals (odds 1.74), and we rate it at 57%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 51% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 43% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 11; Sunderland 3 wins, 5 draws, Leeds 3 wins.
- An average of 1.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Sunderland 6–14, Leeds 9–6.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 43%.
- Out: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 51%, best price 1.91). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Absent for Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sunderland vs Leeds: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.02 | 3.25 | 2.67 |
| Market average | 2.95 | 3.13 | 2.59 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.00 | 2.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 68.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.27 | 2.21 | 43.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.68 | 56.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 4.20 | 4.01 | 23.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.6% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.89 | 49.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sunderland 1–1 Leeds, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Sunderland 20th (5 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Sunderland 1W 1D 5L (6:14), Leeds 2W 4D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 11 matches: Sunderland 3W 5D 3L, goals 8–9.
- Absences: Sunderland 5, Leeds 5.
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sunderland vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sunderland vs Leeds: team news and absences
Sunderland
- D. Ballardmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Dansored card · will miss the match
- R. Mundleknee injury · will miss the match
- W. Isidorinjury · doubtful
- T. Meuniermuscle injury · doubtful
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Calvert-Lewinfoot injury · doubtful
- N. Okaforgroin injury · doubtful
- A. Stachgroin injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 | Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Sunderland
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SunderlandLDLLLLeedsLDDLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sunderland vs Leeds?
Leeds +0 (Asian handicap) (1.87); Under 2.5 goals (1.74).
Who will win Sunderland vs Leeds?
We estimate: Sunderland win 32%, draw 31%, Leeds win 37%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 16:30, venue: Stadium of Light, Sunderland. Referee: Stuart Attwell.
Who will be missing?
Sunderland: D. Ballard, K. Danso, R. Mundle, W. Isidor, T. Meunier. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. Calvert-Lewin, N. Okafor, A. Stach. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 43% (odds 2.27); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 57% (odds 1.74).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.91).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (13.0%), then 0–1 (11.3%) and 1–0 (10.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.