Sturm Graz vs Celje: prediction, tip and odds, 5 November 2026, UEFA Europa League

Sturm Graz vs Celje betting prediction

Sturm Graz host Celje at Stadion Graz-Liebenau on 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00, in matchday four of the Europa League league phase. On the table of this competition only, Sturm sit 19th with 4 points and Celje 29th with 1. That is ten places and three points between them, and it is the first thing we looked at. The bookmakers make Sturm the clear favourites, but we think the price on Celje's handicap is more interesting than the price on the home win.

Where the table leaves the two sides

Sturm have played three and taken four points from them, with one win, one draw and one defeat. Their home record in this competition is one win and one draw, with a single goal scored and none conceded at home. The problem is up front: 1 goal scored in three games is a thin return, and the 1:3 goal record is the number that stands out to us.

Celje are in a much worse place. One point from three games, no wins, one draw and two defeats, and seven goals conceded against two scored. Away from home they have lost their only game in this competition 2-0. Per match they score 0.7 and concede 2.3, which is the kind of profile that makes a handicap of plus one and a half look fair rather than generous.

Form in all competitions, not just this one

The table only tells half the story, and the other half comes from matches in all competitions. Sturm's last three were a 0-0 draw at home to Rennes, a 3-0 defeat away at Bournemouth and a 1-0 home win over Marseille. Across those three games they won one, drew one and lost one, scoring once and conceding three times. They kept a clean sheet in two of them and did not score in two. Those two shutouts are the reason we are not ready to call them a broken side.

Celje's last three were a 2-0 defeat away at Bayer Leverkusen, a 3-0 home defeat to Omonia Nicosia and a 2-2 draw at home to Red Bull Salzburg. No wins, one draw, two defeats, two goals scored and seven conceded. They scored in only one of those matches.

No history between these two sides

There is no earlier meeting between Sturm and Celje that we know of, so there is nothing to lean on from head-to-head. Everything here rests on the current form and the market, which is fine for a game of this shape but means the price has to do the work.

Team news and who is missing

Sturm Graz are without ten players: N. Geyrhofer, L. Grgic, S. Jatta, D. Khudyakov, O. Kiteishvili, G. Mamageishvili, F. Rozga, E. Soglo, N. Weiper and S. Wlodarczyk. That is a long list. For Celje no absences have been reported.

What the bookmakers expect from the match

The result market gives Sturm Graz a 61% chance at best odds of 1.58, a draw 22% at best odds of 4.60 and a Celje win 17% at best odds of 5.75. The margin on that market is 6.6%, which is normal and not something to worry about. The expected goals are 2 for Sturm and 1 for Celje, about three in total, and the most likely exact scores are 2-1 at 9.9%, 1-1 at 9.4% and 2-0 at 9.4%.

On the goals lines, over 2.5 sits at 60% with best odds of 1.61, and under 3.5 at 60% with best odds of 1.57. Both teams to score is 57% yes at best odds of 1.67. On the handicap, Sturm -1 is 51% at 1.90 while Celje +1 is 49% at 1.98, and Celje +1.5 is 61% at 1.60. These figures only describe what the market expects. They are not a record of how often these things happened in the past.

Best bet for Sturm Graz vs Celje: Celje +1.5

We are backing Celje +1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.60, with a market chance of 61%. At +1.5 the bet wins unless Celje lose by two or more, so a draw, a one-goal defeat or any win for them takes the stake home. Sturm have won only one of their last three, and the price already reflects their home advantage. The 61% at 1.60 is a fair number but not enough to make a home win look like the safest bet on the card.

Here is how it settles on the likeliest scores. A 2-1 win for Sturm, a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 home win all win the bet. A 2-0 win, a 3-1 win or a 3-0 win for Sturm lose it. The stake is only really at risk if Sturm get two goals clear of Celje, and that is the scenario we think is less likely than the market allows.

Second tip and the under 3.5 case

Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.57, with a chance of 60%. The argument is narrow but clear. Sturm had more than 2.5 goals in only one of their last three matches, and they kept a clean sheet in two. Those are the numbers from all competitions, not this one, but they point the same way as the price. The market's 60% at 1.57 is what the bookmakers think. We think it is at least right.

It settles on the likeliest scores as follows: 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0 all win, while 3-1 loses. So a 3-0 home win still wins, and only games with four or more goals take it out.

Other bets we would consider

If you want a price on Celje that asks less of you, Celje +2 at odds 1.28 with a 74% chance is the one we like best of the rest. At +2 the bet wins unless Celje lose by three or more, and a defeat by exactly two returns the stake, which is a very comfortable place for a side that has scored only twice in three games. It agrees with our main tip, and it is cheaper, though the return is smaller.

For corners, under 11.5 at odds 1.31 with a 71% chance is our pick. It is a short price.

What we think happens on the night

We expect Sturm to get the win, probably by a single goal, and Celje to keep the scoreline close enough to make the handicap pay. Sturm's ten absences are the reason we are not sure they will run away with it, and no reported absences for Celje are the reason we are not willing to back them outright. The sensible play is Celje +1.5 at 1.60, with the under 3.5 as a companion if you like your bets lined up. We would not back Sturm to win by two or more on this form.