Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Sturm Graz play Marseille at home on 22 October 2026 · 17:45 at Stadion Graz-Liebenau (Graz); the referee is Nenad Minaković. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Sturm Graz are 19th in the table, on 4 points after 3 matches (1W 1D 1L), and Marseille are 34th, on 0 points (0W 0D 3L).
- Head to head. From 1 meetings: 1 win for Sturm Graz, 0 wins for Marseille and 0 draws, with the goals at 1–0.
What to expect
For us, Marseille are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Sturm Graz, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the away side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 64% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 1; Sturm Graz 1 win, 0 draws, Marseille 0 wins.
- An average of 1.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Sturm Graz: no absences. Absent for Marseille: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
| Market average | 3.07 | 3.54 | 2.21 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.09 | 2.04 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.42 | 39.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.34 | 40.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.59 | 36.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 22/10/26, 16:29. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Sturm Graz 19th (4 points), Marseille 34th (0 points).
- H2H: 1 match: Sturm Graz 1W 0D 0L, goals 1–0.
- Absences: Sturm Graz 0, Marseille 0.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: team news and absences
Sturm Graz
- No reported absences
Marseille
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 |  Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 |  Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz +1 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
We estimate: Sturm Graz win 31%, draw 27%, Marseille win 43%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 October 2026, kick-off: 17:45, venue: Stadion Graz-Liebenau, Graz. Referee: Nenad Minaković.
Who will be missing?
Sturm Graz: no absences. Marseille: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 64% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.7%), then 1–2 (9.1%) and 0–1 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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