Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña: prediction, tip and odds, 21 November 2026, La Liga

Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña betting prediction

Alavés sit 12th in La Liga on 13 points, while Deportivo La Coruña occupy 9th with 15, a gap of three places and two points. That table reflects this competition alone. The fixture takes place at the Mendizorrotza on 21 November 2026, with kick-off at 13:00. Market pricing points to roughly two goals across the match, around one per side, and the most probable exact results, 1-1 and 1-0, each carry a 12.7% chance. That restrained total is the thread we keep pulling on.

Same scoring, different defending

Each side has found the net 15 times so far, averaging 1.3 a game. Where they separate is defence: Alavés have let in 17, or 1.4 per match, whereas Deportivo have conceded 14, or 1.2. We put more faith in the 1.2 figure, since it reflects a team that has held its structure more reliably than the hosts have.

On home turf, Alavés look to recover some of that ground. They have collected 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats at home, netting 11 goals and shipping 6. Deportivo's record on the road reads 1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses, with 7 scored and 8 conceded. We put more weight on these venue splits than on the full-season totals.

Five matches each, and neither side is in form

In their last five matches in every competition, Alavés have collected no wins, two draws and three defeats, with 4 goals scored and 11 conceded. The sequence features a 6-1 loss away at Barcelona on 31 October, plus a 1-2 setback at home against Atlético Madrid on 10 October. Goals have been hard to come by for this side lately.

Deportivo have the edge, though only slightly. Over their last five matches in every competition, they have collected one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring 5 and letting in 6. Their lone victory came 2-1 at home to Osasuna on 2 November, while the draws were a 1-1 with Levante and a goalless game at Espanyol (0-0).

Neither side has any prior head-to-head record, and no absences have been reported

There is no prior fixture between these two sides on record, so past meetings offer no guidance here. Neither club has reported any injuries or suspensions, meaning we are assessing complete squads on the latest form figures, and the available team information leaves our outlook unchanged.

Best bet for Alavés vs Deportivo La Coruña: Under 2.5 goals

Our pick is under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.77, a line the bookmakers price as a 56% probability. Our reasoning centres on a projected total near two goals, and on Deportivo's recent attack, which has seldom pushed a game beyond the 2.5 mark. Our reasons:

• Only 2 of Deportivo La Coruña's last 5 matches have produced over 2.5 goals.
• The match is projected to produce roughly 2 goals in total.
• At the best available price of 1.77, the market puts the under 2.5 goals at a 56% probability.

The tip cashes on 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 0-0 and 2-0, and the only score that sinks it is 2-1. Covering that many of the most likely results is the reason we feel at ease with the price. The over 2.5 goals is priced at 2.22 with a 44% chance, so the goals market itself points in the same direction.

Backing the home side at 2.12

Alavés to win at 2.12 is the second selection on our card, with the market putting them at roughly 46%. Deportivo's recent form is poor, with just one victory in their last five outings, while Alavés have collected 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats at home, so a path to all three points is clearly there. The value is reasonable rather than lavish, so stick to 2.12 and avoid backing it at any higher price.

The tip collects on 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1, and falls short on 1-1, 0-0 and 0-1. Both tips land together on 1-0 and 2-0, yet they diverge on 1-1 and 2-1, which means the decision to back each one depends on how you choose to divide your money across those scorelines.

Other bets we would consider

For a second opinion, under 3.5 goals priced at 1.26 is the most solid option, carrying a 76% probability, and it works well with our main pick. If you'd rather cover the home team without requiring a win, Alavés or draw at 1.31 gives a 74% probability. Those who believe Deportivo can keep the gap tight might consider Deportivo +1.5 on the Asian line at 1.25, which lands unless they lose by two or more goals; the bookmakers rate that outcome at 76%.

Our final call: the under, with 1-1 in mind

Both the xG figures and the correct-score prices lean in one direction. 1-1 and 1-0 share the top spot at 12.7%, and 0-1 follows at 9.1%. Our preferred play is under 2.5 goals at 1.77. If you'd rather side with the hosts, Alavés to win at 2.12 is the alternative. With the numbers this close between the teams, we'd keep stakes modest here.