Bet with Freshbet →Our tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia (La Liga, 21 November 2026, 15:15): Rayo Vallecano +0 (Asian handicap) at odds of 1.55. Second tip: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.86. The bookmakers' odds give Rayo Vallecano 47%, the draw 28% and Valencia 25%. The most likely score is 1–1.
Wins: Rayo Vallecano win. Stake back: a draw. Loses: Rayo Vallecano lose.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia betting prediction
Will Rayo's strong form at home be enough to see off Valencia, a team that has found the net hard to come by? That is what this Matchweek 13 La Liga fixture comes down to. It takes place at the Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas in Madrid on 21 November 2026, kicking off at 15:15. Our view favours the hosts, but only narrowly.
At a glance
- Likely result: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Valencia, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rayo Vallecano 14th (12 points), Valencia 19th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Rayo Vallecano 3W 3D 5L (15:21), Valencia 2W 3D 7L (8:20).
- H2H: 22 matches: Rayo Vallecano 5W 10D 7L, goals 18–28.
- Absences: Rayo Vallecano 0, Valencia 0.
Rayo's home ground is their best card
Rayo are 14th in this competition with 12 points from 11 matches, after 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats. They have scored 15 and conceded 21. The figure that catches our eye is their home record in La Liga: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat, with 9 goals scored and 7 conceded. At Vallecas they have been a different side to the one that has conceded 21 times overall.
The table covers this competition only, so it says nothing about Rayo's cup or European business, and we would not read more into it than that.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Valencia on the road, and a struggle for goals
Valencia sit 19th with 9 points from 12 matches, with 2 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats in La Liga. Their 8 goals scored and 20 conceded are the real problem. Away from home they have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2, with 5 scored and 6 conceded. That is not a away record that frightens a home side.
Their recent form, across all competitions, is no better. Valencia have picked up 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last five outings, netting 4 and shipping 7. Both sides found the net in 2 of those five games, and more than 2.5 goals arrived in 3 of them.
Over their latest five outings in every competition, Rayo collected one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring five times and conceding six. A 3-0 home loss to Elche was followed by a 3-0 home victory over Celta Vigo, which shows just how much their results at home can swing. Both teams found the net in two of those matches, and two of them featured more than 2.5 goals. Rayo finished one game without conceding and were held scoreless in two.
No meetings on file and no injury news
No previous meetings between these two clubs appear in our records, so a head-to-head trend cannot guide the pick. With no injuries or suspensions reported for either team, the call rests on recent form, the venue and the odds.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: team news and absences
Rayo Vallecano
- No reported absences
Valencia
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Rayo VallecanoLWLDDValenciaLWLDDBest bet for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: Rayo Vallecano +0
Our top pick is Rayo Vallecano +0 at 1.55, which we rate at a 65% likelihood. Under a +0 line, a Rayo victory takes the win, a stalemate hands back the wager, and a loss costs the stake. We are comfortable carrying the draw exposure in this case, since the handicap returns the stake should the game finish level.
- Valencia have won only 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions.
- Rayo are 14th in this competition on 12 points, while Valencia are 19th on 9.
- Rayo have won 3 of their home matches in this competition.
- Bookmakers price the Rayo +0 handicap at a 65% chance, with the best available odds sitting at 1.55.
Across the most probable correlated scorelines, the selection collects on 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0, gets its money back on 1-1 and 0-0, and goes down only on 0-1. Bookmaker pricing puts Rayo at 47%, a draw at 28% and Valencia at 25%, with a margin of 6.7%. That makes the handicap price somewhat tight rather than generous, yet still reasonable given Rayo's stronger home form.
Our under 2.5 goals selection is priced at 1.86, an implied probability of 54% according to the market. Rayo have exceeded 2.5 goals in just 2 of their last five matches, while Valencia have held a clean sheet in 2 of their last five. This bet succeeds with a 1-1, 1-0, 0-0, 2-0 or 0-1 scoreline and fails only on a 2-1. Think of it as a supporting pick alongside the main tip, not a substitute for it.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.13 | 3.60 | 3.93 |
| Market average | 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.69 |
| Lowest odds | 1.93 | 3.14 | 3.28 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.37 | 1.34 | 70.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.78 | 53.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.75 | 3.51 | 26.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.91 | 1.83 | 51.0% |
| BTTS – no | 1.92 | 1.90 | 49.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 8/11/26, 16:51. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Three extra bets we like
- Rayo Vallecano or draw (1X) at 1.32, with a chance of 75%. This line pays out on a Rayo victory or a stalemate, making it the more cautious pick for backing Rayo while steering clear of the full handicap exposure.
- Rayo Vallecano +0.5 (Asian handicap) at 1.27, with a chance of 75%. The bet wins unless Rayo lose by one or more goals.
- Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a market chance of 73%, which suits a game where the market projects roughly three goals overall.
Rayo sit higher in the standings and have the more convincing home form, and that is the angle we are betting on. Should the match end level, our main tip still returns the stake, which is a reassuring safety net.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 12 | 11-0-1 | 48:13 | 33 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 12 | 10-0-2 | 31:10 | 30 |
| 3 |  Atlético Madrid | 12 | 9-1-2 | 23:10 | 28 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 12 | 8-2-2 | 20:15 | 26 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 12 | 7-1-4 | 21:20 | 22 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 12 | 5-3-4 | 17:19 | 18 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 11 | 4-4-3 | 15:11 | 16 |
| 8 |  Villarreal | 12 | 4-3-5 | 17:15 | 15 |
| 9 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 12 | 3-6-3 | 15:14 | 15 |
| 10 |  Racing Santander | 12 | 4-2-6 | 17:30 | 14 |
| 11 |  Celta Vigo | 12 | 2-7-3 | 10:10 | 13 |
| 12 |  Alavés | 12 | 3-4-5 | 15:17 | 13 |
| 13 |  Espanyol | 12 | 3-3-6 | 13:14 | 12 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:21 | 12 |
| 15 |  Getafe | 12 | 3-3-6 | 8:18 | 12 |
| 16 |  Osasuna | 12 | 3-3-6 | 12:23 | 12 |
| 17 |  Levante | 12 | 2-5-5 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 18 |  Elche | 12 | 2-4-6 | 14:20 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 12 | 2-3-7 | 8:20 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 12 | 0-5-7 | 9:23 | 5 |
Recent matches
Rayo Vallecano
Home and away
Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia: last matches of both teams
Rayo Vallecano
Valencia
Head to head
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Match events
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
Rayo Vallecano +0 (Asian handicap) (1.55); Under 2.5 goals (1.86).
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Valencia?
We estimate: Rayo Vallecano win 47%, draw 28%, Valencia win 25%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 21 November 2026, kick-off: 15:15, venue: Campo de Fútbol de Vallecas, Madrid.
Who will be missing?
Rayo Vallecano: no absences. Valencia: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 46% (odds 2.10); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 54% (odds 1.86).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 51% (odds 1.91).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.3%), then 1–0 (11.7%) and 2–1 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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