Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Bayern München against Borussia Dortmund on 31 October 2026 · 17:30 at Allianz Arena (Munich), and Tobias Stieler will referee. Bayern München (72%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Bayern München are 1st in the table, on 18 points after 8 matches (5W 3D 0L), and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd, on 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. On average Bayern München score 3.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 0.9; for Borussia Dortmund the figures are 1.7 scored and 0.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bayern München: 5W 2D 0L, goals 25–6; Borussia Dortmund: 5W 2D 0L, goals 12–4.
- Head to head. From 50 meetings: 27 wins for Bayern München, 13 wins for Borussia Dortmund and 10 draws, with the goals at 101–68.
What to expect
For us, Bayern München are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–1 (8.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.53), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 74% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 50; Bayern München 27 wins, 10 draws, Borussia Dortmund 13 wins.
- An average of 3.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Bayern München 25–6, Borussia Dortmund 12–4.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 74%.
- Out: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.53). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Absent for Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.35 | 6.40 | 8.96 |
| Market average | 1.32 | 6.02 | 8.16 |
| Lowest odds | 1.29 | 5.32 | 6.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 1.07 | 88.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.27 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.90 | 3.63 | 26.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.79 | 1.73 | 55.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.49 | 62.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 14:09. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bayern München 2–1 Borussia Dortmund, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Bayern München 1st (18 points), Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Bayern München 5W 2D 0L (25:6), Borussia Dortmund 5W 2D 0L (12:4).
- H2H: 50 matches: Bayern München 27W 10D 13L, goals 101–68.
- Absences: Bayern München 4, Borussia Dortmund 4.
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund: team news and absences
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
Borussia Dortmund
- E. Canknee injury · will miss the match
- G. Konstanteliasknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Lermamuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Karetsasankle injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Bayern München
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Bayern MünchenDWWDWBorussia DortmundDWDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund +1.75 (Asian handicap) (1.95); Both teams to score (1.53).
Who will win Bayern München vs Borussia Dortmund?
We estimate: Bayern München win 72%, draw 16%, Borussia Dortmund win 12%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 17:30, venue: Allianz Arena, Munich. Referee: Tobias Stieler.
Who will be missing?
Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, J. Musiala, M. Neuer. Borussia Dortmund: E. Can, G. Konstantelias, J. Lerma, K. Karetsas. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 74% (odds 1.30); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 26% (odds 3.90).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.53).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (8.9%), then 3–1 (8.1%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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