Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SC Freiburg v Bayern München: 25 October 2026 · 16:30 at Europa-Park-Stadion (Freiburg), with Felix Zwayer refereeing. We have Bayern München (64%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. SC Freiburg are 3rd in the table, on 16 points after 8 matches (5W 1D 2L), and Bayern München are 1st, on 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
- Attack and defence. On average SC Freiburg score 2.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Bayern München the figures are 3.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. SC Freiburg: 4W 1D 1L, goals 15–6; Bayern München: 4W 2D 0L, goals 22–5.
- Head to head. From 32 meetings: 2 wins for SC Freiburg, 24 wins for Bayern München and 6 draws, with the goals at 27–85.
What to expect
For us, Bayern München are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.86), and we rate it at 53%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 66% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 73% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 32; SC Freiburg 2 wins, 6 draws, Bayern München 24 wins.
- An average of 3.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: SC Freiburg 15–6, Bayern München 22–5.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 73%.
- Out: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 47%, best price 2.10). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for SC Freiburg: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Absent for Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.75 | 5.28 | 1.53 |
| Market average | 5.49 | 5.05 | 1.49 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.75 | 1.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.07 | 87.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.33 | 1.30 | 72.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.47 | 27.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.79 | 53.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.44 | 1.41 | 65.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.81 | 2.72 | 34.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:38. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: SC Freiburg 1–2 Bayern München, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SC Freiburg 3rd (16 points), Bayern München 1st (18 points).
- Form in the competition: SC Freiburg 4W 1D 1L (15:6), Bayern München 4W 2D 0L (22:5).
- H2H: 32 matches: SC Freiburg 2W 6D 24L, goals 27–85.
- Absences: SC Freiburg 2, Bayern München 7.
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
SC Freiburg vs Bayern München: team news and absences
SC Freiburg
- Y. Engelhardtinjury · doubtful
- B. Yilmazabsence · doubtful
Bayern München
- T. Buchmannknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Diazmuscle injury · will miss the match
- Kim Min-Jaeknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Kimmichabsence · will miss the match
- J. Musialamuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Neuerfoot injury · will miss the match
- A. Pavloviccalf injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
SC Freiburg
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SC FreiburgWLLWDBayern MünchenDWWDWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
Over 3.5 goals (1.86); Bayern München to win (1.53).
Who will win SC Freiburg vs Bayern München?
We estimate: SC Freiburg win 17%, draw 19%, Bayern München win 64%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 16:30, venue: Europa-Park-Stadion, Freiburg. Referee: Felix Zwayer.
Who will be missing?
SC Freiburg: Y. Engelhardt, B. Yilmaz. Bayern München: T. Buchmann, L. Diaz, Kim Min-Jae, J. Kimmich, J. Musiala, M. Neuer, A. Pavlovic. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 73% (odds 1.33); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 27% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 66% (odds 1.44).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.2%), then 1–3 (7.7%) and 1–1 (7.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.