Bet with Freshbet →Borussia Dortmund v SV Elversberg: 7 November 2026 · 14:30 at Signal Iduna Park (Dortmund), with Harm Osmers refereeing. We have Borussia Dortmund (73%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg betting prediction
Borussia Dortmund host SV Elversberg at Signal Iduna Park on 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 14:30 in Matchweek 9 of the Bundesliga. The home side sits second in the table and the visitors seventh, and the bookmakers have Dortmund as heavy favourites. We agree with the direction of that view, though the price on the main angle is where we want to look.
Dortmund's home record carries the case
Dortmund have 18 points from 8 Bundesliga matches, with 5 wins, 3 draws and no defeats. They have scored 14 and conceded 6, which works out at 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match in this competition. At home the numbers are the strongest part of their season: 3 wins, 1 draw, 0 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 2 conceded.
The recent form is less one-sided, and it is fair to say so. In their last five matches in all competitions, Dortmund have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded. Those games include a 1-0 defeat away to Bodø/Glimt, a 0-0 draw away to Union Berlin, a 1-2 win away to Sabah FA, a 1-0 home win over Eintracht Frankfurt and a 2-2 draw away to Bayern München.
Elversberg travel well only on paper
Elversberg have 13 points from 8 games in this competition, with 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 defeats. Their goals read 16:16, so they have scored and conceded at the same rate, 2.0 each per match. The away record is where we get stuck: 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 4 goals scored and 8 conceded on the road.
In all competitions their last five matches show 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. The most recent results were a 4-1 home win over FSV Mainz 05 and a 4-0 defeat away to RB Leipzig. We would not read too much into the home win, because the same side conceded four at Leipzig a week earlier.
No earlier meeting and no injury news
We have no record of an earlier meeting between these two clubs, so there is no head-to-head pattern to lean on. Neither side has any reported absences, which means the team sheets should look close to full strength on both sides. That leaves the decision on the form and the price, not on the availability of players.
Where the odds leave us
The bookmakers make Dortmund a 74% favourite at best odds of 1.32, a draw 15% at best odds of 6.70, and Elversberg 11% at best odds of 9.50. Their expected goals are 3 for Dortmund and 1 for Elversberg, which gives about 4 goals in total. The margin on the match result is 6.0%, and the most likely exact scores are 2-1, 2-0 and 3-1.
Our main tip is Borussia Dortmund -1.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.84 (chance 55%). At -1.5, Dortmund must win by 2 or more. This bet wins on 2-0, 3-1 and 3-0, and it loses on 2-1, 1-1 and 1-0. We like it because Dortmund have lost only 1 of their last 5 matches in all competitions, they sit second with 18 points while Elversberg are seventh with 13, and their home record reads 3 wins, 1 draw and 0 defeats. The market gives it 55% at the best odds of 1.84, and that price is fair for a side this strong at home. The risk is the 2-1 win, which is tied with 2-0 as the most likely score in the market at 8.9% and which would lose this bet.
Our second tip is Both teams to score at odds 1.62 (chance 59%). This bet wins on 2-1, 3-1 and 1-1, and it loses on 2-0, 3-0 and 1-0. The expected total of about 4 goals supports it, and the market gives it 59% at the best odds of 1.62. We would not back it as a strong view, but it is the more natural fit with the goals Elversberg have been scoring.
Other bets we would consider
If you prefer a different angle to the two tips, these are the ones we would look at, all at the odds quoted:
- Borussia Dortmund to win at odds 1.32 (chance 74%), the simplest route if you only want the result.
- Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.33 (chance 72%), which fits the expected total of about 4 goals.
- Borussia Dortmund -1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.42 (chance 68%). At -1 Dortmund must win by 2 or more, and a win by exactly 1 returns the stake.
- Over 9.5 corners at odds 1.62 (chance 58%), a line we would take as a small add-on rather than a main play.
Our view is that Dortmund should win this match. That is why the -1.5 line is our main tip, and why we would keep the stakes modest on anything beyond it.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.32 | 6.58 | 9.50 |
| Market average | 1.29 | 6.09 | 8.36 |
| Lowest odds | 1.25 | 5.22 | 6.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.07 | 87.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.35 | 1.31 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.33 | 28.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.88 | 1.83 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 59.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.28 | 40.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 00:31. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Borussia Dortmund 2–1 SV Elversberg, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points), SV Elversberg 7th (13 points).
- Form in the competition: Borussia Dortmund 5W 3D 0L (14:6), SV Elversberg 4W 1D 3L (16:16).
- Absences: Borussia Dortmund 0, SV Elversberg 0.
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg: team news and absences
Borussia Dortmund
- No reported absences
SV Elversberg
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Borussia Dortmund
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Borussia DortmundDWDDWSV ElversbergWLWLDReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg?
Borussia Dortmund -1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Both teams to score (1.60).
Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg?
We estimate: Borussia Dortmund win 73%, draw 16%, SV Elversberg win 11%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 7 November 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund. Referee: Harm Osmers.
Who will be missing?
Borussia Dortmund: no absences. SV Elversberg: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 72% (odds 1.35); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 28% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.60).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.0%), then 2–0 (9.0%) and 3–1 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.