Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Union Berlin against Borussia Dortmund on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at An der Alten Försterei (Berlin), and Daniel Schlager, Germany will referee. Borussia Dortmund (61%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Union Berlin are 16th in the table, on 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L), and Borussia Dortmund are 2nd, on 18 points (5W 3D 0L).
What to expect
For us, Borussia Dortmund are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.51), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 63% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 63%.
- Out: Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Union Berlin: no absences. Absent for Borussia Dortmund: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.79 | 4.72 | 1.60 |
| Market average | 5.51 | 4.47 | 1.56 |
| Lowest odds | 5.00 | 4.20 | 1.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.11 | 83.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.51 | 1.47 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.55 | 36.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.31 | 2.23 | 42.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.31 | 40.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–2 Borussia Dortmund, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), Borussia Dortmund 2nd (18 points).
- Absences: Union Berlin 0, Borussia Dortmund 0.
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: team news and absences
Union Berlin
- No reported absences
Borussia Dortmund
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund -1 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Over 2.5 goals (1.51).
Who will win Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund?
We estimate: Union Berlin win 17%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund win 61%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Referee: Daniel Schlager, Germany.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: no absences. Borussia Dortmund: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 63% (odds 1.51); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 37% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.9%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 0–2 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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