Bet with Freshbet →Benfica v Lech Poznań: 5 November 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio da Luz (Lisbon), with Martin Matosa refereeing. We have Benfica (83%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań betting prediction
Benfica have the better of nearly every number we looked at ahead of the UEFA Europa League match at the Estádio da Luz on 5 November 2026, kick-off 20:00. Our main tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds 1.83 (chance 53%), and our second tip is Benfica to win at odds 1.17 (chance 82%). We like the result far more than the goals, and the goals bet is the one that dies on a 1-0 or 2-0 finish.
Benfica at the Luz: top of the table, goals to spare
In this competition Benfica are first with 9 points from 3 played, 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost, and goals 10:2. At home they have won their one match, scoring 4 and conceding 1. That home sample is small, so we lean on the wider form. In all competitions Benfica have won their last five matches, scoring 13 and conceding 3. Both teams scored in three of those five, and more than 2.5 goals came in three of them. They beat Vitória SC 2-0 and Alverca 1-0 at home, Celtic 4-1 at home, won 4-1 at Omonia Nicosia and 2-1 at Santa Clara. The two home games that finished 2-0 and 1-0 are the reason we would not put the goals bet on a shelf.
Lech Poznań: one point and a leaky away record
Lech Poznań sit 32nd with 1 point from 3 played, 0 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost, and goals 1:9. Away from home they have 0 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, and 0:4 in goals. Those figures are this competition only, and they sit awkwardly beside the last five matches in all competitions, which contain a 7-0 home win over FC Thun and a 2-2 draw away at the same club. Taken on their own, the recent results show a side that scores and concedes in bunches. They have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in those five, with goals 10:11. The 4-0 defeats at Crystal Palace and at home to Bayer Leverkusen are the ones that worry us most. We think Lech can score, but we would not expect them to keep up.
Meetings and absences: a one-sided history
Benfica won both previous meetings, 4-0 on 3 December 2020 and 2-4 at Lech Poznań on 22 October 2020, so the head to head is 8 goals to 2 in their favour. That is a useful pointer for the result, though two games from 2020 tell us little about this squad. Benfica are missing L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea and D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań are without A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho and A. Sayyadmanesh. The list is long on the away side, but none of these names changes how we read the two tips, so we have left them out of the decision.
Odds, expected goals and our two tips
The bookmakers give Benfica an 82% chance at best odds 1.17, a draw 12% at 9.00 and Lech Poznań 6% at 19.00, with a margin of 6.7%. Their expected goals are Benfica 3 and Lech Poznań 1, about four in total, and the most likely exact scores are 2-0 (10.8%), 3-0 (10.6%) and 2-1 (8.1%). Those are market figures, a view of what the bookmakers expect, and they are not a record of past matches.
Our main tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds 1.83 (chance 53%). It wins on 3-1 and 4-0 and loses on 2-0, 3-0, 2-1 and 1-0. We back it on three grounds: more than 2.5 goals in three of Benfica's last five matches, more than 2.5 goals in four of Lech Poznań's last five, and an expected total of about four goals, which the market prices at 53% at best odds 1.83. The price is fair, not generous. You need the match to reach four goals, and the likeliest scores do not get there.
Our second tip is Benfica to win at odds 1.17 (chance 82%), and it wins on every one of the likeliest scores we have, including 1-0. We back it because Benfica have won all five of their last five, have lost none of them, and Lech Poznań have won only one. Benfica are 1st with 9 points, Lech 32nd with 1, Benfica are 1 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost at home in this competition, and they have won the last two meetings, 2 of 2 to Lech's 0. The price is short, so the profit is thin, but this is the bet we would take with the most confidence.
Other bets we would consider
If the main tip or the second tip is not enough for you, these are the lines we like from the list, all at their current odds and none against our tips:
- Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.34 (chance 72%). It needs only three goals, and it sits comfortably under our main tip's expected total.
- Benfica -1.5 Asian handicap at odds 1.45 (chance 66%). At -1.5 Benfica must win by 2 or more.
- Benfica -0.75 Asian handicap at odds 1.22 (chance 78%). Half the stake on Benfica -1 and half on Benfica -0.5; at -1 Benfica must win by 2 or more, and a win by exactly 1 returns that half, while at -0.5 Benfica must win by 1 or more.
- Over 8.5 corners at odds 1.61 (chance 60%).
Our money goes on Benfica to win, and the goals bet stays as the main tip because the expected total supports it. Anyone who wants the extra value should think about the handicap rather than a bigger goals number. The 1.83 price is fair, and we would size it accordingly.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.16 | 9.20 | 18.50 |
| Market average | 1.14 | 8.59 | 16.68 |
| Lowest odds | 1.11 | 7.50 | 12.52 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | 1.07 | 87.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 73.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.78 | 3.56 | 26.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.80 | 1.74 | 54.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.3% |
| BTTS – no | 1.95 | 1.84 | 50.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 08:13. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznań, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Benfica 2nd (9 points), Lech Poznań 32nd (1 point).
- Form in the competition: Benfica 7W 1D 1L (29:8), Lech Poznań 3W 2D 2L (16:11).
- H2H: 2 matches: Benfica 2W 0D 0L, goals 8–2.
- Absences: Benfica 3, Lech Poznań 6.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Benfica vs Lech Poznań: team news and absences
Benfica
- L. Barreironot in the squad · will miss the match
- E. Barrenecheainjury · will miss the match
- D. Lukebakioinjury · doubtful
Lech Poznań
- A. Douglasankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Gholizadehknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ishaknot in the squad · will miss the match
- W. Monkainjury · will miss the match
- J. Moutinhonot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Sayyadmaneshgroin injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | 3-1-0 | 4:1 | 10 |
| 2 | Benfica | 3 | 3-0-0 | 10:2 | 9 |
| 3 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:0 | 9 |
| 4 |  Bournemouth | 3 | 3-0-0 | 8:1 | 9 |
| 5 |  Ferencvárosi TC | 3 | 3-0-0 | 9:3 | 9 |
| 6 |  Union Saint-Gilloise | 3 | 2-1-0 | 8:1 | 7 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:3 | 7 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 3 | 2-1-0 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Sunderland | 3 | 2-1-0 | 4:2 | 7 |
| 10 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2-0-1 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 11 |  Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:4 | 6 |
| 12 |  Rennes | 4 | 1-3-0 | 4:3 | 6 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 3 | 2-0-1 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 14 |  Real Sociedad | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:3 | 4 |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 3 | 1-1-1 | 8:5 | 4 |
| 16 |  Sparta Praha | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:3 | 4 |
| 17 |  Levski Sofia | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:3 | 4 |
| 18 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 19 |  Sturm Graz | 3 | 1-1-1 | 1:3 | 4 |
| 20 |  NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1-1-1 | 5:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1-1-1 | 3:6 | 4 |
| 22 |  Anderlecht | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1-0-2 | 5:5 | 3 |
| 24 |  AC Milan | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 25 |  Celta Vigo | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 26 |  OFI | 3 | 1-0-2 | 3:4 | 3 |
| 27 |  Jagiellonia | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:6 | 3 |
| 28 |  Torreense | 3 | 1-0-2 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 29 |  Celje | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:7 | 1 |
| 30 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Lillestrøm | 3 | 0-1-2 | 2:9 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznań | 3 | 0-1-2 | 1:9 | 1 |
| 33 |  Plzeň | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:7 | 0 |
| 34 |  Marseille | 3 | 0-0-3 | 1:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Celtic | 3 | 0-0-3 | 3:9 | 0 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0-0-3 | 2:11 | 0 |
Recent matches
Benfica
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
Over 3.5 goals (1.80); Benfica to win (1.16).
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznań?
We estimate: Benfica win 83%, draw 11%, Lech Poznań win 6%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 5 November 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Estádio da Luz, Lisbon. Referee: Martin Matosa.
Who will be missing?
Benfica: L. Barreiro, E. Barrenechea, D. Lukebakio. Lech Poznań: A. Douglas, A. Gholizadeh, M. Ishak, W. Monka, J. Moutinho, A. Sayyadmanesh. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 74% (odds 1.30); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 26% (odds 3.78).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 49% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 3–0 as most likely (10.6%), then 2–0 (10.2%) and 4–0 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.