Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Southampton against Bolton on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), and Matt Donohue, England will referee. Southampton (66%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Southampton vs Bolton: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Southampton are 7th in the table, on 24 points after 14 matches (8W 4D 2L), and Bolton are 17th, on 17 points (5W 2D 7L).
What to expect
For us, Southampton are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 66% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 66%.
- Out: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Southampton: no absences. Absent for Bolton: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Southampton vs Bolton: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.48 | 5.25 | 6.62 |
| Market average | 1.42 | 4.90 | 6.25 |
| Lowest odds | 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 84.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.76 | 33.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.55 | 59.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.30 | 40.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Southampton 2–1 Bolton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 7th (24 points), Bolton 17th (17 points).
- Absences: Southampton 0, Bolton 0.
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Southampton vs Bolton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Southampton vs Bolton: team news and absences
Southampton
- No reported absences
Bolton
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 | Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Southampton vs Bolton?
Bolton +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.97); Over 2.5 goals (1.45).
Who will win Southampton vs Bolton?
We estimate: Southampton win 66%, draw 19%, Bolton win 15%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Matt Donohue, England.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: no absences. Bolton: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.45); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.7%), then 2–0 (9.2%) and 1–1 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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