Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Cardiff v Birmingham: 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Cardiff City Stadium (Cardiff), with Tim Robinson, England refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Cardiff are 18th in the table, on 15 points after 14 matches (3W 6D 5L), and Birmingham are 3rd, on 26 points (7W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Cardiff score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Birmingham the figures are 1.8 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Cardiff: 2W 5D 4L, goals 18–17; Birmingham: 5W 5D 1L, goals 20–11.
- Head to head. From 24 meetings: 13 wins for Cardiff, 3 wins for Birmingham and 8 draws, with the goals at 35–18.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 24; Cardiff 13 wins, 8 draws, Birmingham 3 wins.
- An average of 2.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Cardiff 18–17, Birmingham 20–11.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Alternative tip: Draw or Birmingham (X2)
Alternative tip: Draw or Birmingham (X2) (probability 63%, best price 1.55). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Absent for Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.65 | 3.88 | 2.57 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.72 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.43 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 82.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 1.50 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | 2.48 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.43 | 2.28 | 41.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.45 | 1.42 | 65.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.88 | 2.67 | 34.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Cardiff 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Cardiff 18th (15 points), Birmingham 3rd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Cardiff 2W 5D 4L (18:17), Birmingham 5W 5D 1L (20:11).
- H2H: 24 matches: Cardiff 13W 8D 3L, goals 35–18.
- Absences: Cardiff 5, Birmingham 2.
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Cardiff vs Birmingham: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Cardiff vs Birmingham: team news and absences
Cardiff
- C. Chambersknee injury · will miss the match
- D. Lawlorhamstring injury · will miss the match
- G. Oshored card · will miss the match
- R. Colwillankle injury · doubtful
- P. Ngnot in the squad · doubtful
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Cardiff
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
CardiffDLWDWBirminghamWWLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Cardiff vs Birmingham?
Birmingham +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.57); Both teams to score (1.45).
Who will win Cardiff vs Birmingham?
We estimate: Cardiff win 37%, draw 25%, Birmingham win 38%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff. Referee: Tim Robinson, England.
Who will be missing?
Cardiff: C. Chambers, D. Lawlor, G. Osho, R. Colwill, P. Ng. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.56); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.63).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.45).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.4%), then 1–2 (8.3%) and 2–1 (8.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.