Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Birmingham against QPR on 17 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham), and Thomas Kirk, England will referee. Birmingham (48%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Birmingham vs QPR: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Birmingham are 3rd in the table, on 26 points after 14 matches (7W 5D 2L), and QPR are 11th, on 21 points (5W 6D 3L).
What to expect
For us, Birmingham are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.8%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 52% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 52%.
- Out: Birmingham 0, QPR 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.73). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Birmingham: no absences. Absent for QPR: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Birmingham vs QPR: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.99 | 3.70 | 3.87 |
| Market average | 1.96 | 3.53 | 3.66 |
| Lowest odds | 1.93 | 3.40 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 74.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.87 | 1.82 | 51.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.02 | 1.94 | 48.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.20 | 3.06 | 30.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.70 | 54.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.02 | 45.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Birmingham 1–1 QPR, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Birmingham 3rd (26 points), QPR 11th (21 points).
- Absences: Birmingham 0, QPR 0.
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Birmingham vs QPR: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Birmingham vs QPR: team news and absences
Birmingham
- No reported absences
QPR
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Birmingham vs QPR?
QPR +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.69); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Birmingham vs QPR?
We estimate: Birmingham win 48%, draw 27%, QPR win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Referee: Thomas Kirk, England.
Who will be missing?
Birmingham: no absences. QPR: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 52% (odds 1.87); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 48% (odds 2.02).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.8%), then 1–0 (10.8%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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