Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 3–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Birmingham v Millwall: 3 November 2026 · 20:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium (Birmingham), with David Webb refereeing. We have Birmingham (48%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Birmingham vs Millwall: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Birmingham are 3rd in the table, on 26 points after 14 matches (7W 5D 2L), and Millwall are 13th, on 18 points (5W 3D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Birmingham score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for Millwall the figures are 1.8 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Birmingham: 6W 5D 2L, goals 23–13; Millwall: 5W 3D 5L, goals 23–21.
- Head to head. From 24 meetings: 8 wins for Birmingham, 8 wins for Millwall and 8 draws, with the goals at 35–26.
What to expect
For us, Birmingham are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.67), and we rate it at 57%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 24; Birmingham 8 wins, 8 draws, Millwall 8 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Birmingham 23–13, Millwall 23–21.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: Birmingham 5, Millwall 7.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 57%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Birmingham: M. Leonard, K. Lund, Paik Seung-Ho, J. Beadle, D. Fry. Absent for Millwall: C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, T. Arconte, M. Luongo. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Birmingham vs Millwall: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.02 | 3.72 | 3.90 |
| Market average | 1.95 | 3.57 | 3.67 |
| Lowest odds | 1.91 | 3.33 | 3.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 76.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | 1.76 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 2.03 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.01 | 2.83 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.64 | 56.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.16 | 43.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 3/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.6%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Birmingham 1–1 Millwall, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Birmingham 3rd (26 points), Millwall 13th (18 points).
- Form in the competition: Birmingham 6W 5D 2L (23:13), Millwall 5W 3D 5L (23:21).
- H2H: 24 matches: Birmingham 8W 8D 8L, goals 35–26.
- Absences: Birmingham 5, Millwall 7.
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Birmingham vs Millwall: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Birmingham vs Millwall: team news and absences
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- K. Lundnot in the squad · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- J. Beadlenot in the squad · doubtful
- D. Frynot in the squad · doubtful
Millwall
- C. De Norremuscle injury · will miss the match
- L. Jensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Marschallinjury · will miss the match
- J. Metcalfeabsence · will miss the match
- M. Servaisnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Arconteankle injury · doubtful
- M. Luongoknee injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 | Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Birmingham
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BirminghamWWLWWMillwallLWLDLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Birmingham vs Millwall?
Millwall +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Both teams to score (1.67).
Who will win Birmingham vs Millwall?
We estimate: Birmingham win 48%, draw 26%, Millwall win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 3 November 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham. Referee: David Webb.
Who will be missing?
Birmingham: M. Leonard, K. Lund, Paik Seung-Ho, J. Beadle, D. Fry. Millwall: C. De Norre, L. Jensen, F. Marschall, J. Metcalfe, M. Servais, T. Arconte, M. Luongo. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.80); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.11).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.5%), then 1–0 (10.0%) and 2–1 (9.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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