Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Lincoln against Birmingham on 31 October 2026 · 12:30 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln), and Lewis Smith will referee. This one looks too close to call. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lincoln are 19th in the table, on 15 points after 14 matches (4W 3D 7L), and Birmingham are 3rd, on 26 points (7W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lincoln score 1.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.7; for Birmingham the figures are 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 4W 3D 5L, goals 13–20; Birmingham: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. From 4 meetings: 0 wins for Lincoln, 4 wins for Birmingham and 0 draws, with the goals at 3–9.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.4%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.73), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 49% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 4; Lincoln 0 wins, 0 draws, Birmingham 4 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lincoln 13–20, Birmingham 20–12.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 49%.
- Out: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.73). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Absent for Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.47 | 3.51 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.28 | 3.38 | 2.14 |
| Lowest odds | 2.95 | 2.99 | 2.09 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.28 | 72.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.01 | 1.92 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.91 | 1.87 | 50.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.44 | 3.25 | 28.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.73 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.10 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 09:42. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Birmingham, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 19th (15 points), Birmingham 3rd (26 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 4W 3D 5L (13:20), Birmingham 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 4 matches: Lincoln 0W 0D 4L, goals 3–9.
- Absences: Lincoln 3, Birmingham 3.
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lincoln vs Birmingham: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lincoln vs Birmingham: team news and absences
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Birmingham
- M. LeonardAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- Paik Seung-Hoabsence · will miss the match
- A. Priskeabsence · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 | Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LincolnLLWDLBirminghamWWLWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lincoln vs Birmingham?
Lincoln +0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.75); Both teams to score (1.73).
Who will win Lincoln vs Birmingham?
We estimate: Lincoln win 29%, draw 28%, Birmingham win 44%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Lewis Smith.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Birmingham: M. Leonard, Paik Seung-Ho, A. Priske. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 49% (odds 2.01); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 51% (odds 1.91).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.73).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.4%), then 0–1 (10.8%) and 1–2 (9.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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