Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is FC Porto against PSV Eindhoven on 20 October 2026 · 20:00 at Estádio do Dragão (Porto), and Daniel Siebert will referee. FC Porto (63%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. FC Porto are 26th in the table, on 3 points after 4 matches (1W 0D 3L), and PSV Eindhoven are 24th, on 4 points (1W 1D 2L).
- Head to head. From 1 meetings: 0 wins for FC Porto, 1 win for PSV Eindhoven and 0 draws, with the goals at 0–1.
What to expect
For us, FC Porto are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.60), and we rate it at 61%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 1; FC Porto 0 wins, 0 draws, PSV Eindhoven 1 win.
- An average of 1.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 60%, best price 1.65). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for FC Porto: no absences. Absent for PSV Eindhoven: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.57 | 4.78 | 6.13 |
| Market average | 1.53 | 4.57 | 5.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.50 | 4.27 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.53 | 61.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.60 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.49 | 2.37 | 40.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.17 | 43.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 20/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: FC Porto 2–1 PSV Eindhoven, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Porto 26th (3 points), PSV Eindhoven 24th (4 points).
- H2H: 1 match: FC Porto 0W 0D 1L, goals 0–1.
- Absences: FC Porto 0, PSV Eindhoven 0.
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: team news and absences
FC Porto
- No reported absences
PSV Eindhoven
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 4 | 4-0-0 | 20:5 | 12 |
| 2 |  Real Madrid | 4 | 4-0-0 | 13:7 | 12 |
| 3 |  Arsenal | 4 | 3-1-0 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 4 |  Como | 4 | 3-0-1 | 19:6 | 9 |
| 5 |  Barcelona | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:6 | 9 |
| 6 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:6 | 9 |
| 7 |  Manchester City | 4 | 3-0-1 | 12:7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Liverpool | 4 | 3-0-1 | 14:10 | 9 |
| 9 |  Club Brugge KV | 4 | 3-0-1 | 11:7 | 9 |
| 10 |  Sporting CP | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:4 | 9 |
| 11 |  Real Betis | 4 | 3-0-1 | 8:6 | 9 |
| 12 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 3-0-1 | 7:5 | 9 |
| 13 |  Bayern München | 4 | 2-2-0 | 12:5 | 8 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 2-1-1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 15 |  Inter | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:6 | 6 |
| 16 |  Lask Linz | 4 | 2-0-2 | 10:9 | 6 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 18 |  Galatasaray | 4 | 2-0-2 | 8:9 | 6 |
| 19 |  Fenerbahçe | 4 | 1-2-1 | 6:11 | 5 |
| 20 |  AS Roma | 4 | 1-1-2 | 10:8 | 4 |
| 21 |  Shakhtar Donetsk | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:4 | 4 |
| 22 |  Viking | 4 | 1-1-2 | 9:10 | 4 |
| 23 |  Atlético Madrid | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:5 | 4 |
| 24 | PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 1-1-2 | 3:4 | 4 |
| 25 |  Bodø/Glimt | 4 | 1-1-2 | 4:9 | 4 |
| 26 | FC Porto | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:7 | 3 |
| 27 |  Napoli | 4 | 1-0-3 | 6:11 | 3 |
| 28 |  Villarreal | 4 | 1-0-3 | 8:14 | 3 |
| 29 |  AEK Athens FC | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 30 |  RB Leipzig | 4 | 1-0-3 | 5:11 | 3 |
| 31 |  Sabah FA | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:10 | 3 |
| 32 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:11 | 3 |
| 33 |  Lens | 4 | 1-0-3 | 4:16 | 3 |
| 34 |  Slavia Praha | 4 | 0-1-3 | 5:9 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lille | 4 | 0-1-3 | 4:10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 0-0-4 | 1:17 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
FC Porto -1 (Asian handicap) (1.89); Over 2.5 goals (1.60).
Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
We estimate: FC Porto win 63%, draw 21%, PSV Eindhoven win 17%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 20 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Estádio do Dragão, Porto. Referee: Daniel Siebert.
Who will be missing?
FC Porto: no absences. PSV Eindhoven: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.60).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 2–0 (9.4%) and 1–1 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.