Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 v Werder Bremen: 24 October 2026 · 14:30 at MEWA Arena (Mainz), with Florian Badstübner refereeing. We have FSV Mainz 05 (55%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. FSV Mainz 05 are 9th in the table, on 10 points after 8 matches (3W 1D 4L), and Werder Bremen are 5th, on 15 points (4W 3D 1L).
- Attack and defence. On average FSV Mainz 05 score 2.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.7; for Werder Bremen the figures are 2.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 2L, goals 14–10; Werder Bremen: 2W 3D 1L, goals 12–12.
- Head to head. From 31 meetings: 11 wins for FSV Mainz 05, 13 wins for Werder Bremen and 7 draws, with the goals at 45–42.
What to expect
For us, FSV Mainz 05 are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Werder Bremen, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 62% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 62% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 31; FSV Mainz 05 11 wins, 7 draws, Werder Bremen 13 wins.
- An average of 2.8 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: FSV Mainz 05 14–10, Werder Bremen 12–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 62%.
- Out: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 62%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Absent for Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.80 | 4.34 | 4.75 |
| Market average | 1.73 | 4.13 | 4.41 |
| Lowest odds | 1.70 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.18 | 1.14 | 81.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.51 | 62.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.61 | 2.50 | 37.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.37 | 2.30 | 41.4% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.51 | 61.7% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.43 | 38.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 12:03. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: FSV Mainz 05 2–1 Werder Bremen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points), Werder Bremen 5th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 2L (14:10), Werder Bremen 2W 3D 1L (12:12).
- H2H: 31 matches: FSV Mainz 05 11W 7D 13L, goals 45–42.
- Absences: FSV Mainz 05 4, Werder Bremen 8.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: team news and absences
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
- R. Zentnerabsence · doubtful
Werder Bremen
- F. Agucalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Alverocalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Musahmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. N'Diayegroin injury · will miss the match
- J. Njinmahthigh injury · will miss the match
- J. Stagemuscle injury · will miss the match
- N. Starkmuscle injury · will miss the match
- K. Toppknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 | Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
FSV Mainz 05
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FSV Mainz 05LLWLWWerder BremenWWDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.98); Over 2.5 goals (1.57).
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
We estimate: FSV Mainz 05 win 55%, draw 23%, Werder Bremen win 22%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: MEWA Arena, Mainz. Referee: Florian Badstübner.
Who will be missing?
FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, O. Ruoppi, R. Zentner. Werder Bremen: F. Agu, S. Alvero, S. Musah, M. N'Diaye, J. Njinmah, J. Stage, N. Stark, K. Topp. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 62% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 38% (odds 2.61).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.8%) and 2–0 (8.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.