Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
SV Elversberg v FSV Mainz 05: 30 October 2026 · 19:30 at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde (Spiesen-Elversberg), with Sascha Stegemann refereeing. We have FSV Mainz 05 (46%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. SV Elversberg are 7th in the table, on 13 points after 8 matches (4W 1D 3L), and FSV Mainz 05 are 9th, on 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
- Attack and defence. On average SV Elversberg score 1.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.1; for FSV Mainz 05 the figures are 2.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. SV Elversberg: 3W 1D 3L, goals 12–15; FSV Mainz 05: 3W 1D 3L, goals 16–13.
- Head to head. From 3 meetings: 1 win for SV Elversberg, 1 win for FSV Mainz 05 and 1 draw, with the goals at 6–4.
What to expect
For us, FSV Mainz 05 are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 61% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 3; SV Elversberg 1 win, 1 draw, FSV Mainz 05 1 win.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: SV Elversberg 12–15, FSV Mainz 05 16–13.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 61%.
- Out: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for SV Elversberg: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. Absent for FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.60 | 4.07 | 2.20 |
| Market average | 3.31 | 3.77 | 2.05 |
| Lowest odds | 2.73 | 3.38 | 1.95 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.19 | 1.15 | 81.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.60 | 1.54 | 61.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.62 | 2.44 | 38.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.45 | 2.33 | 40.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.53 | 36.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 30/10/26, 18:08. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: SV Elversberg 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: SV Elversberg 7th (13 points), FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: SV Elversberg 3W 1D 3L (12:15), FSV Mainz 05 3W 1D 3L (16:13).
- H2H: 3 matches: SV Elversberg 1W 1D 1L, goals 6–4.
- Absences: SV Elversberg 6, FSV Mainz 05 4.
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: team news and absences
SV Elversberg
- T. Zimmerschiedankle injury · will miss the match
- N. Darvichhamstring injury · doubtful
- L. Guntherknock · doubtful
- J. Gyamerahthigh injury · doubtful
- L. Pinckertmuscle injury · doubtful
- L. Seifertankle injury · doubtful
FSV Mainz 05
- D. Kohrfoot injury · will miss the match
- Silasabsence · will miss the match
- N. Amiriknee injury · doubtful
- O. Ruoppiknee injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 | SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
SV Elversberg
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SV ElversbergWLWLDFSV Mainz 05LLWLWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 -0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.90); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05?
We estimate: SV Elversberg win 29%, draw 25%, FSV Mainz 05 win 46%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 30 October 2026, kick-off: 19:30, venue: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg. Referee: Sascha Stegemann.
Who will be missing?
SV Elversberg: T. Zimmerschied, N. Darvich, L. Gunther, J. Gyamerah, L. Pinckert, L. Seifert. FSV Mainz 05: D. Kohr, Silas, N. Amiri, O. Ruoppi. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 61% (odds 1.60); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 39% (odds 2.62).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.6%), then 1–2 (9.3%) and 0–1 (7.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.