Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is FC Schalke 04 against FSV Mainz 05 on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at VELTINS-Arena (Gelsenkirchen), and Richard Hempel, Germany will referee. This one looks too close to call. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. FC Schalke 04 are 17th in the table, on 6 points after 8 matches (1W 3D 4L), and FSV Mainz 05 are 9th, on 10 points (3W 1D 4L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–2 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 57% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 57%.
- Out: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 60%, best price 1.57). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for FC Schalke 04: no absences. Absent for FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.02 | 3.70 | 2.44 |
| Market average | 2.96 | 3.55 | 2.36 |
| Lowest odds | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.19 | 78.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.73 | 1.69 | 56.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.28 | 2.20 | 43.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.74 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.57 | 1.54 | 60.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.40 | 2.34 | 39.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: FC Schalke 04 1–1 FSV Mainz 05, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: FC Schalke 04 17th (6 points), FSV Mainz 05 9th (10 points).
- Absences: FC Schalke 04 0, FSV Mainz 05 0.
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: team news and absences
FC Schalke 04
- No reported absences
FSV Mainz 05
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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FC Schalke 04
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
FSV Mainz 05 +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.60); Under 3.5 goals (1.50).
Who will win FC Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05?
We estimate: FC Schalke 04 win 32%, draw 27%, FSV Mainz 05 win 41%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: VELTINS-Arena, Gelsenkirchen. Referee: Richard Hempel, Germany.
Who will be missing?
FC Schalke 04: no absences. FSV Mainz 05: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 57% (odds 1.73); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 43% (odds 2.28).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.57).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.5%), then 1–2 (8.9%) and 0–1 (8.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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