Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Ajax play Atalanta at home on 22 October 2026 · 20:00 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam); the referee is A. Nobre. For us, Ajax (46%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Ajax vs Atalanta: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Ajax are 13th in the table, on 3 points after 2 matches (1W 0D 1L), and Atalanta are 15th, on 3 points (1W 0D 1L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (9.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.45), and we rate it at 67%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 67% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 67% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 67%.
- Out: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 53%, best price 1.84). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Ajax: no absences. Absent for Atalanta: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Ajax vs Atalanta: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.21 | 4.03 | 3.34 |
| Market average | 2.05 | 3.82 | 3.14 |
| Lowest odds | 1.98 | 3.50 | 2.86 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.45 | 1.40 | 66.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.10 | 2.82 | 33.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.14 | 2.03 | 46.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.94 | 2.83 | 32.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 22/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 13th (3 points), Atalanta 15th (3 points).
- Absences: Ajax 0, Atalanta 0.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Ajax vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Ajax vs Atalanta: team news and absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
Atalanta
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Panathinaikos | 2 | 2-0-0 | 7:2 | 6 |
| 2 |  FC Lugano | 2 | 2-0-0 | 8:4 | 6 |
| 3 |  Brann | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 4 |  Trabzonspor | 2 | 2-0-0 | 6:2 | 6 |
| 5 |  Twente | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 6 |  Monaco | 2 | 2-0-0 | 5:1 | 6 |
| 7 |  St. Truiden | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:0 | 6 |
| 8 |  HNK Hajduk Split | 2 | 2-0-0 | 3:1 | 6 |
| 9 |  Brighton | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:0 | 4 |
| 10 |  FC Copenhagen | 2 | 1-1-0 | 5:2 | 4 |
| 11 |  Universitatea Craiova | 2 | 1-1-0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 12 |  Mjällby AIF | 2 | 1-1-0 | 3:1 | 4 |
| 13 | Ajax | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 14 |  Borac Banja Luka | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 15 | Atalanta | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Braga | 2 | 1-0-1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 17 |  Gent | 2 | 1-0-1 | 1:2 | 3 |
| 18 |  SC Freiburg | 2 | 1-0-1 | 3:5 | 3 |
| 19 |  FC Nordsjælland | 2 | 0-2-0 | 3:3 | 2 |
| 20 |  Egnatia Rrogozhinë | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 21 |  Riga | 2 | 0-2-0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 22 |  FK Crvena Zvezda | 2 | 0-1-1 | 4:5 | 1 |
| 23 |  CSKA Sofia | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 24 |  FK Jablonec | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:3 | 1 |
| 25 |  FC Midtjylland | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 26 |  Aarhus | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:2 | 1 |
| 27 |  Pafos | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:4 | 1 |
| 28 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 29 |  FC Iberia 1999 | 2 | 0-1-1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 30 |  Getafe | 2 | 0-1-1 | 3:6 | 1 |
| 31 |  Kairat Almaty | 2 | 0-1-1 | 2:6 | 1 |
| 32 |  FC Thun | 2 | 0-0-2 | 0:2 | 0 |
| 33 |  Lincoln Red Imps FC | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 34 |  KuPS | 2 | 0-0-2 | 2:6 | 0 |
| 35 |  Inter Club d'Escaldes | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:5 | 0 |
| 36 |  Kauno Žalgiris | 2 | 0-0-2 | 1:8 | 0 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Ajax vs Atalanta?
Under 3.5 goals (1.84); Ajax to win (2.21).
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
We estimate: Ajax win 46%, draw 25%, Atalanta win 30%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam. Referee: A. Nobre.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: no absences. Atalanta: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.45); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 33% (odds 3.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 67% (odds 1.40).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (9.5%), then 2–1 (9.0%) and 1–2 (7.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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