Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 5–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Molde v Fredrikstad: 25 October 2026 · 18:15 at Aker Stadion (Molde), with Ola Hobber Nilsen refereeing. We have Molde (68%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Molde are 3rd in the table, on 43 points after 25 matches (13W 4D 8L), and Fredrikstad are 11th, on 29 points (8W 5D 12L).
- Attack and defence. On average Molde score 2.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.5; for Fredrikstad the figures are 1.2 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Molde: 12W 4D 7L, goals 52–35; Fredrikstad: 8W 5D 10L, goals 28–36.
- Head to head. From 6 meetings: 2 wins for Molde, 2 wins for Fredrikstad and 2 draws, with the goals at 14–8.
What to expect
For us, Molde are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.5%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.60), and we rate it at 59%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 59% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 6; Molde 2 wins, 2 draws, Fredrikstad 2 wins.
- An average of 3.7 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Molde 52–35, Fredrikstad 28–36.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 59%, best price 1.60). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Molde: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Absent for Fredrikstad: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.40 | 5.53 | 7.50 |
| Market average | 1.37 | 5.07 | 6.86 |
| Lowest odds | 1.33 | 4.75 | 6.38 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.13 | 1.10 | 84.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.40 | 1.38 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.03 | 2.88 | 32.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 1.99 | 47.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.57 | 58.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.25 | 41.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Molde 2–1 Fredrikstad, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Molde 3rd (43 points), Fredrikstad 11th (29 points).
- Form in the competition: Molde 12W 4D 7L (52:35), Fredrikstad 8W 5D 10L (28:36).
- H2H: 6 matches: Molde 2W 2D 2L, goals 14–8.
- Absences: Molde 6, Fredrikstad 3.
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Molde vs Fredrikstad: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Molde vs Fredrikstad: team news and absences
Molde
- S. Diopnot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Hanseninjury · will miss the match
- E. Hestadabsence · will miss the match
- V. Hoffknee injury · will miss the match
- M. KikkenborgAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- H. Stenevikinjury · will miss the match
Fredrikstad
- D. Eidabsence · will miss the match
- S. Kvileknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Nysveeninjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Viking | 25 | 19-2-4 | 64:26 | 59 |
| 2 |  Bodø/Glimt | 25 | 19-2-4 | 61:23 | 59 |
| 3 | Molde | 25 | 13-4-8 | 59:39 | 43 |
| 4 |  Rosenborg | 25 | 13-4-8 | 49:31 | 43 |
| 5 |  Lillestrøm | 25 | 13-3-9 | 36:33 | 42 |
| 6 |  Tromsø | 25 | 11-7-7 | 43:38 | 40 |
| 7 |  Brann | 25 | 10-2-13 | 45:42 | 32 |
| 8 |  Vålerenga | 25 | 9-5-11 | 43:46 | 32 |
| 9 |  Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 10 |  KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8-7-10 | 32:41 | 31 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8-5-12 | 29:44 | 29 |
| 12 |  Sandefjord | 25 | 7-6-12 | 26:34 | 27 |
| 13 |  Ham-Kam | 25 | 7-6-12 | 35:53 | 27 |
| 14 |  Aalesund | 25 | 5-9-11 | 43:57 | 24 |
| 15 |  Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6-5-14 | 29:51 | 23 |
| 16 |  Start | 25 | 5-4-16 | 26:55 | 19 |
Recent matches
Molde
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MoldeLWWDLFredrikstadLLLDDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Molde vs Fredrikstad?
Molde -0.5 (Asian handicap) (1.50); Both teams to score (1.60).
Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?
We estimate: Molde win 68%, draw 18%, Fredrikstad win 14%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 18:15, venue: Aker Stadion, Molde. Referee: Ola Hobber Nilsen.
Who will be missing?
Molde: S. Diop, S. Hansen, E. Hestad, V. Hoff, M. Kikkenborg, H. Stenevik. Fredrikstad: D. Eid, S. Kvile, J. Nysveen. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.40); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.03).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 59% (odds 1.60).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.5%), then 2–0 (9.1%) and 3–1 (7.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.