Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Premier League

Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City betting prediction

Can a Nottingham Forest side sitting 19th with 6 points put a scare into Manchester City, who are second on 21? That is the issue this Premier League Matchweek 10 clash comes down to. The fixture takes place at the City Ground on 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 17:30. The bookmakers clearly expect City to come out on top, and our task is to work out whether the handicap price makes backing that expectation worthwhile.

Forest's home record leaves little room

Forest have managed just a single victory in nine outings in this competition, and that win was away from home. At the City Ground they have collected one draw and three losses, failing to find the net there while letting in three. Over the campaign in this competition they have scored 6 and conceded 12, an average of 0.7 goals scored per game.

Counting across every competition gives a different picture. Forest have gone five matches without a win, with one draw at Ipswich and four defeats against Coventry, Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Brentford. Only two goals were scored across those five games. Calling them finished would be too harsh, yet we would not back them to find the net first.

City look strong away

Over their last five games in all competitions, City have taken two wins and suffered three defeats, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Losses against Paris Saint Germain and Brighton, plus the setback at Aston Villa, show that this side can be halted. In this competition the form looks far more convincing: seven victories and two reverses, 20 goals scored and 10 conceded, averaging 2.2 scored and 1.1 conceded per match.

The away form is the statistic we rely on most. In this competition City have taken three wins from four away matches, netting nine goals while letting in three. That is the record we keep in mind when weighing up a visit to Nottingham.

Nine meetings that favour the visitors

Over the last nine head-to-heads, City have prevailed six times, Forest once, and two have finished level, with the goals tallied at 5:20. The most recent meeting, dated 4/3/26, finished 2-2 with City as the home side. Before that, City edged out a 1-2 away win at Forest's ground on 27/12/25, while Forest's sole success in the sequence was a 1-0 victory on 8/3/25.

Past meetings give no exact score to go on, yet they do suggest City have generally managed to win here, frequently by a margin of more than one goal. That makes a handicap look like a sounder wager than a straight win.

Both squads are fully available

Neither side has any injuries or suspensions to report. Form, league position and the head-to-head history are the only factors left to weigh, and every one of them tilts in the same direction.

Our pick: City -0.75 on the Asian handicap

Our top pick is Manchester City -0.75 in the Asian handicap market, priced at 1.98, with an estimated probability of 50%. Half the stake goes on City -1 and the other half on City -0.5. For the -1 line, City needs a victory by at least two goals; if they win by exactly one, that half is refunded. The -0.5 half pays out as long as City win by a single goal or more.

Our lean rests on three points: City sit second in this competition while Forest are 19th, City have won six of the last nine head-to-head clashes, and Forest have not claimed a single victory in their last five outings across all competitions. The bookmakers price City at 55% for a straight win, with the best available odds at 1.78.

Here is how the main tip plays out across the most likely scorelines: a 1-1 draw loses; 1-2 and 0-1 each count as a half win, with half the stake returned; 0-2 and 1-3 win outright; and 2-1 loses. The two results that sting most are 1-1 and 2-1, and we are willing to live with them given the odds on offer.

Another tip: Under 3.5 goals

We are siding with the under on our second selection: Under 3.5 goals at 1.53, with an estimated probability of 63%. Nottingham Forest topped 2.5 goals in just one of their previous five outings, which is the core argument for taking the under. On the most probable scorelines, the bet wins with 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2 and 2-1 and loses only with 1-3.

Two other bets we would consider

Should you prefer to add a side bet without altering the core ticket, these two are the picks we would consider first:

• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.21 (chance 79%). It offers the lowest-risk line available here, and an expected total near three goals supports it.
• Draw or Manchester City (X2) at odds 1.24 (chance 79%). It also covers a 1-1 score, the outcome most likely to make the handicap lose.

Our verdict on City

Our view is that City will take the points, and the Asian handicap is the cleaner route to that view. Forest's form at home and the goals they tend to score point toward a City victory as the most likely result. Full payment on the -1 leg requires City to win by two, while a one-goal margin only gives back part of the stake, so keep the stake modest. We prefer City at -0.75 and odds of 1.98 over a straight win at 1.78.