Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Manchester City v Brighton: 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Etihad Stadium (Manchester), with Craig Pawson refereeing. We have Manchester City (57%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Manchester City vs Brighton: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Manchester City are 2nd in the table, on 21 points after 9 matches (7W 0D 2L), and Brighton are 3rd, on 19 points (6W 1D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Manchester City score 2.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Brighton the figures are 2.9 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Manchester City: 7W 0D 1L, goals 20–9; Brighton: 5W 1D 2L, goals 23–7.
- Head to head. From 21 meetings: 13 wins for Manchester City, 4 wins for Brighton and 4 draws, with the goals at 48–19.
What to expect
For us, Manchester City are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.48), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 64% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 21; Manchester City 13 wins, 4 draws, Brighton 4 wins.
- An average of 3.2 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Manchester City 20–9, Brighton 23–7.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: Manchester City 1, Brighton 8.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Manchester City: A. Semenyo. Absent for Brighton: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, K. Mitoma, P. Struijk, S. Tzimas, Z. Yohanna, C. Andres, F. Kadioglu. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Manchester City vs Brighton: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.72 | 4.56 | 4.81 |
| Market average | 1.67 | 4.34 | 4.53 |
| Lowest odds | 1.56 | 4.05 | 4.20 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.11 | 84.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.48 | 1.44 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.73 | 34.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.11 | 45.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.46 | 63.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.75 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Manchester City 2–1 Brighton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester City 2nd (21 points), Brighton 3rd (19 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester City 7W 0D 1L (20:9), Brighton 5W 1D 2L (23:7).
- H2H: 21 matches: Manchester City 13W 4D 4L, goals 48–19.
- Absences: Manchester City 1, Brighton 8.
Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Manchester City vs Brighton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Manchester City vs Brighton: team news and absences
Manchester City
- A. Semenyoknee injury · will miss the match
Brighton
- F. Azeezabsence · will miss the match
- E. Fergusonankle injury · will miss the match
- K. Mitomahamstring injury · will miss the match
- P. Struijkabsence · will miss the match
- S. Tzimasknee injury · will miss the match
- Z. Yohannainjury · will miss the match
- C. Andresmuscle injury · doubtful
- F. Kadiogluhip injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 | Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Manchester City
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Manchester CityLLWWWBrightonWLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Manchester City vs Brighton?
Brighton +1 (Asian handicap) (1.85); Over 2.5 goals (1.48).
Who will win Manchester City vs Brighton?
We estimate: Manchester City win 57%, draw 22%, Brighton win 21%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester. Referee: Craig Pawson.
Who will be missing?
Manchester City: A. Semenyo. Brighton: F. Azeez, E. Ferguson, K. Mitoma, P. Struijk, S. Tzimas, Z. Yohanna, C. Andres, F. Kadioglu. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.48); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 64% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.2%) and 2–0 (7.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.