Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Aston Villa v Manchester City: 24 October 2026 · 12:30 at Villa Park (Birmingham), with Peter Bankes, England refereeing. We have Manchester City (59%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Aston Villa are 10th in the table, on 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), and Manchester City are 2nd, on 21 points (7W 0D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Aston Villa score 1.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Manchester City the figures are 2.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Aston Villa: 2W 2D 3L, goals 7–11; Manchester City: 7W 0D 0L, goals 19–7.
- Head to head. From 30 meetings: 8 wins for Aston Villa, 20 wins for Manchester City and 2 draws, with the goals at 29–69.
What to expect
For us, Manchester City are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.46), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 66% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 30; Aston Villa 8 wins, 2 draws, Manchester City 20 wins.
- An average of 3.3 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Aston Villa 7–11, Manchester City 19–7.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 66%.
- Out: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Aston Villa: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Absent for Manchester City: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 5.18 | 4.51 | 1.68 |
| Market average | 4.92 | 4.43 | 1.63 |
| Lowest odds | 4.75 | 4.20 | 1.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.12 | 83.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.46 | 1.44 | 65.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.78 | 34.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.17 | 2.09 | 45.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.47 | 63.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.63 | 2.52 | 36.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 09:44. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Aston Villa 1–2 Manchester City, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Aston Villa 10th (12 points), Manchester City 2nd (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Aston Villa 2W 2D 3L (7:11), Manchester City 7W 0D 0L (19:7).
- H2H: 30 matches: Aston Villa 8W 2D 20L, goals 29–69.
- Absences: Aston Villa 4, Manchester City 4.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: team news and absences
Aston Villa
- A. Onanaknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Ruggerimuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Wan-Bissakamuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Manzambicalf injury · doubtful
Manchester City
- A. Semenyoknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Kovacicinjury · doubtful
- M. Nunesknock · doubtful
- N. O'Reillyback injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 | Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Aston Villa
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Aston VillaDWWDWManchester CityLLWWWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
Aston Villa +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.59); Over 2.5 goals (1.46).
Who will win Aston Villa vs Manchester City?
We estimate: Aston Villa win 20%, draw 22%, Manchester City win 59%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 12:30, venue: Villa Park, Birmingham. Referee: Peter Bankes, England.
Who will be missing?
Aston Villa: A. Onana, M. Ruggeri, A. Wan-Bissaka, J. Manzambi. Manchester City: A. Semenyo, M. Kovacic, M. Nunes, N. O'Reilly. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 66% (odds 1.46); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 34% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.7%), then 1–1 (9.1%) and 0–2 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.