Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Rayo Vallecano against Elche on 24 October 2026 · 13:00 at Estadio de Vallecas (Madrid), and Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain will referee. Rayo Vallecano (54%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Rayo Vallecano are 12th in the table, on 12 points after 10 matches (3W 3D 4L), and Elche are 17th, on 10 points (2W 4D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Rayo Vallecano score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.1; for Elche the figures are 1.2 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Rayo Vallecano: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–17; Elche: 1W 4D 4L, goals 11–17.
- Head to head. From 16 meetings: 5 wins for Rayo Vallecano, 9 wins for Elche and 2 draws, with the goals at 18–29.
What to expect
For us, Rayo Vallecano are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.75), and we rate it at 54%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 53% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 16; Rayo Vallecano 5 wins, 2 draws, Elche 9 wins.
- An average of 2.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Rayo Vallecano 12–17, Elche 11–17.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 53%.
- Out: Rayo Vallecano 5, Elche 1.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.75). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Rayo Vallecano: A. Batalla, P. Ciss, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, A. Ratiu. Absent for Elche: M. Aguado. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.82 | 3.96 | 4.78 |
| Market average | 1.77 | 3.85 | 4.59 |
| Lowest odds | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.25 | 75.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.88 | 1.80 | 52.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.08 | 2.01 | 47.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.04 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.73 | 53.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.02 | 46.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 10:20. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Elche, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Rayo Vallecano 12th (12 points), Elche 17th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Rayo Vallecano 2W 3D 3L (12:17), Elche 1W 4D 4L (11:17).
- H2H: 16 matches: Rayo Vallecano 5W 2D 9L, goals 18–29.
- Absences: Rayo Vallecano 5, Elche 1.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: team news and absences
Rayo Vallecano
- A. Batallaabsence · will miss the match
- P. Cissabsence · will miss the match
- Luiz Felipeknee injury · will miss the match
- R. Ntekaback injury · doubtful
- A. Ratiumuscle injury · doubtful
Elche
- M. Aguadoankle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
Rayo Vallecano
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Rayo VallecanoWLDDWElcheLWDDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
Over 2.5 goals (1.88); Rayo Vallecano to win (1.82).
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Elche?
We estimate: Rayo Vallecano win 54%, draw 25%, Elche win 21%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 13:00, venue: Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid. Referee: Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain.
Who will be missing?
Rayo Vallecano: A. Batalla, P. Ciss, Luiz Felipe, R. Nteka, A. Ratiu. Elche: M. Aguado. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.88); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.08).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.2%), then 1–0 (11.2%) and 2–1 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.