Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Real Madrid play Sevilla at home on 18 October 2026 · 20:00 at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium (Madrid); the referee is Mateo Busquets Ferrer. For us, Real Madrid (78%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Real Madrid are 3rd in the table, on 27 points after 11 matches (9W 0D 2L), and Sevilla are 6th, on 17 points (5W 2D 4L).
What to expect
For us, Real Madrid are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–0 (11.0%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.27 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.91), which we rate at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 50% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 68% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 68%.
- Out: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – no
Alternative tip: BTTS – no (probability 50%, best price 1.91). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Real Madrid: no absences. Absent for Sevilla: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.27 | 7.21 | 13.00 |
| Market average | 1.23 | 6.84 | 11.76 |
| Lowest odds | 1.20 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.09 | 85.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.39 | 1.38 | 67.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | 2.93 | 32.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.08 | 1.99 | 48.1% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.95 | 1.87 | 49.7% |
| BTTS – no | 1.91 | 1.85 | 50.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 18/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Real Madrid 2–0 Sevilla, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Real Madrid 3rd (27 points), Sevilla 6th (17 points).
- Absences: Real Madrid 0, Sevilla 0.
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: team news and absences
Real Madrid
- No reported absences
Sevilla
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 11 | 10-0-1 | 46:12 | 30 |
| 2 |  Atlético Madrid | 11 | 9-1-1 | 22:8 | 28 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9-0-2 | 28:10 | 27 |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 11 | 7-2-2 | 18:15 | 23 |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 11 | 6-1-4 | 20:20 | 19 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 11 | 5-2-4 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 7 |  Athletic Club | 10 | 4-3-3 | 14:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Deportivo La Coruña | 11 | 3-5-3 | 15:14 | 14 |
| 9 |  Villarreal | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:15 | 12 |
| 10 |  Celta Vigo | 11 | 2-6-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 11 |  Alavés | 11 | 3-3-5 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 12 |  Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3-3-4 | 15:20 | 12 |
| 13 |  Getafe | 11 | 3-3-5 | 8:16 | 12 |
| 14 |  Espanyol | 11 | 3-2-6 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 15 |  Osasuna | 11 | 3-2-6 | 11:22 | 11 |
| 16 |  Racing Santander | 11 | 3-2-6 | 15:29 | 11 |
| 17 |  Elche | 11 | 2-4-5 | 14:18 | 10 |
| 18 |  Levante | 11 | 2-4-5 | 16:21 | 10 |
| 19 |  Valencia | 11 | 2-3-6 | 8:17 | 9 |
| 20 |  Málaga | 11 | 0-5-6 | 8:21 | 5 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
Real Madrid -1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.70); Under 3.5 goals (1.91).
Who will win Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
We estimate: Real Madrid win 78%, draw 14%, Sevilla win 8%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 18 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid. Referee: Mateo Busquets Ferrer.
Who will be missing?
Real Madrid: no absences. Sevilla: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.39); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 3.20).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 50% (odds 1.95).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (11.0%), then 3–0 (9.9%) and 2–1 (8.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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