Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Marseille against Le Havre on 25 October 2026 · 16:15 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), and Clément Turpin will referee. Marseille (65%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Marseille vs Le Havre: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Marseille are 6th in the table, on 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L), and Le Havre are 18th, on 2 points (0W 2D 7L).
- Attack and defence. On average Marseille score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.4; for Le Havre the figures are 0.7 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 3W 0D 4L, goals 14–10; Le Havre: 0W 2D 5L, goals 5–11.
- Head to head. From 8 meetings: 8 wins for Marseille, 0 wins for Le Havre and 0 draws, with the goals at 27–9.
What to expect
For us, Marseille are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.52), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 8; Marseille 8 wins, 0 draws, Le Havre 0 wins.
- An average of 4.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Marseille 14–10, Le Havre 5–11.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Absent for Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Le Havre: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.53 | 5.08 | 6.50 |
| Market average | 1.48 | 4.88 | 6.08 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.49 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.69 | 2.59 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.34 | 2.24 | 42.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.4% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.6% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 2–1 Le Havre, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Le Havre 18th (2 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 3W 0D 4L (14:10), Le Havre 0W 2D 5L (5:11).
- H2H: 8 matches: Marseille 8W 0D 0L, goals 27–9.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Le Havre 6.
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Marseille vs Le Havre: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Marseille vs Le Havre: team news and absences
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Le Havre
- E. Jelertthigh injury · will miss the match
- F. MambimbiAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- L. Mpasi-NzauAchilles tendon injury · will miss the match
- T. Pembelemuscle injury · will miss the match
- A. Toureknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Zagadouknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLLe HavreLLLLLHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Marseille vs Le Havre?
Marseille -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.64); Over 2.5 goals (1.52).
Who will win Marseille vs Le Havre?
We estimate: Marseille win 65%, draw 20%, Le Havre win 16%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 16:15, venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Clément Turpin.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Le Havre: E. Jelert, F. Mambimbi, L. Mpasi-Nzau, T. Pembele, A. Toure, S. Zagadou. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.69).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.8%), then 2–0 (9.3%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.