Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Marseille v Toulouse: 1 November 2026 · 19:45 at Orange Vélodrome (Marseille), with Hakim Ben el Hadj refereeing. We have Marseille (50%) down as favourites. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Marseille vs Toulouse: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Marseille are 6th in the table, on 15 points after 9 matches (5W 0D 4L), and Toulouse are 12th, on 10 points (2W 4D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Marseille score 2.3 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Toulouse the figures are 1.5 scored and 1.4 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Marseille: 4W 0D 4L, goals 18–13; Toulouse: 2W 4D 2L, goals 12–11.
- Head to head. From 33 meetings: 19 wins for Marseille, 2 wins for Toulouse and 12 draws, with the goals at 64–29.
What to expect
For us, Marseille are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (9.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.50), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 65% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 33; Marseille 19 wins, 12 draws, Toulouse 2 wins.
- An average of 2.8 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Marseille 18–13, Toulouse 12–11.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 65%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Marseille: D. Cornelius. Absent for Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Marseille vs Toulouse: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.97 | 4.25 | 3.80 |
| Market average | 1.92 | 3.96 | 3.61 |
| Lowest odds | 1.87 | 3.58 | 3.19 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 82.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.52 | 1.48 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.70 | 2.58 | 36.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.32 | 2.23 | 42.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.44 | 64.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Marseille 1–1 Toulouse, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Marseille 6th (15 points), Toulouse 12th (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Marseille 4W 0D 4L (18:13), Toulouse 2W 4D 2L (12:11).
- H2H: 33 matches: Marseille 19W 12D 2L, goals 64–29.
- Absences: Marseille 1, Toulouse 2.
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Marseille vs Toulouse: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Marseille vs Toulouse: team news and absences
Marseille
- D. Corneliuship injury · will miss the match
Toulouse
- R. Messalithigh injury · will miss the match
- M. Nifloreknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 |  Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 | Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 | Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Marseille
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
MarseilleWWWWLToulouseLDWDWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Marseille vs Toulouse?
Toulouse +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.78); Both teams to score (1.50).
Who will win Marseille vs Toulouse?
We estimate: Marseille win 50%, draw 24%, Toulouse win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. Referee: Hakim Ben el Hadj.
Who will be missing?
Marseille: D. Cornelius. Toulouse: R. Messali, M. Niflore. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.52); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.70).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 65% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (9.9%), then 2–1 (9.4%) and 1–0 (7.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.