Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb: prediction, tip and odds, 5 November 2026, UEFA Europa League

Sunderland vs Dinamo Zagreb betting prediction

Our tip is Dinamo Zagreb +1.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88, with a chance of 53%. Sunderland are the bookmakers' favourites at 64%, and we understand why, but we think the price overstates how comfortably they will win. On this line Zagreb can afford to lose by a single goal, and that is the margin we expect the match to produce.

Sunderland's ninth place does not tell the whole story

Sunderland sit ninth with 7 points from three matches in this tournament, having won twice and drawn once while scoring 4 and conceding 2. Their lone home fixture finished 1:0 to them. Dinamo Zagreb are 18th with 4 points, a victory, a draw and a loss, and a goal record of 3:4. They are still waiting for an away win in this competition.

The bigger picture is less encouraging for the home side. Sunderland have taken just 1 win from their last 5 across all competitions, with the rest being a draw, two defeats and another draw, which is hard to square with what the table suggests. The standings only reflect this competition, so a team sitting ninth here can still be in trouble elsewhere. Zagreb's recent run is trickier to interpret, yet they have dropped only 1 of their most recent three matches, and that loss was a 2-4 home defeat to NEC Nijmegen.

Where the goals are likely to come from

Sunderland average 1.3 goals per match in this competition and let in 0.7. Zagreb net 1.0 and concede 1.3. On those numbers the home side come out ahead defensively and in attack, and the odds makers project roughly two goals for Sunderland against one for Zagreb. Our most probable exact scores are 2-0, 1-0 and 2-1, so the core pick is built around Zagreb losing by no more than one goal.

Sunderland have cleared 2.5 goals in just 2 of their last 5 games, while Zagreb have done so in 1 of their last 3. Zagreb's clean-sheet tally of 2 from those 3 is the figure we rate most highly. We don't foresee a barrage of chances, and we'd sooner back Zagreb to hold the scoreline down than expect them to be taken apart.

No earlier meeting to lean on

These two sides have no known earlier meeting, which means no head-to-head record can guide the pick. Our analysis therefore leans on recent form, goal data and the betting market.

Absences on both sides

The home side's injury report is longer: Sunderland are missing eight, namely N. Mukiele, M. Ellborg, J. Ta Bi, R. Mundle, C. Talbi, J. Angulo, A. Browne and D. Ballard. Among the visitors, the seven unavailable men are F. Topic, P. Tabinas, N. Nsoki, S. Radeljic, I. Nevistic, S. McKenna and R. Mudrazija, all from Dinamo Zagreb. That imbalance is the main reason we are cautious about backing a simple home victory or a big winning margin.

Why Zagreb +1.25 is our pick

Our top pick is Dinamo Zagreb +1.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.88 (chance 53%). Half the stake sits on Dinamo Zagreb +1 and half on Dinamo Zagreb +1.5. With +1, a loss by one goal gives back the stake, while a defeat by two or more loses it. With +1.5, the stake is lost only if Zagreb fall short by two or more goals, so any single-goal defeat still means the bet pays out.

Looking at the most probable scorelines, a 1-1 draw takes the full stake, while 1-0 and 2-1 each pay back half of it as a winning result. The outcomes 2-0, 3-0 and 3-1 are losses. Our reasoning rests on Zagreb having dropped just one of their last three matches, Sunderland managing only one win in their last five, and Zagreb having no wins, one draw and no defeats away in this competition. Bookmakers price the chance at 53% with the best odds at 1.88.

Our second pick is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.52 (chance 64%). Sunderland have passed 2.5 goals in just 2 of their last 5 games, while Zagreb have done so in only 1 of their last 3. Zagreb also kept a clean sheet in 2 of those 3. The market puts the chance at 64% with best odds of 1.52. The only likely scoreline that loses is 3-1, whereas 2-0, 1-0, 2-1, 1-1 and 3-0 all win.

Other bets we would consider

Nothing here shifts our primary view, yet a handful of odds strike us as reasonable. Over 1.5 goals at 1.22 (79% chance) matches the expected three goals, though the price is so short that we would only back it with a modest portion of the bankroll. Under 11.5 corners at 1.31 (73% chance) is a line we see no grounds to dispute. Dinamo Zagreb +2 (Asian handicap) at 1.35 (72% chance) pairs well with our main pick, because it fails only if Zagreb lose by three goals or more.

Sunderland should win, but not by enough

We don't see a gap wide enough to justify a handicap that requires them to win by a clear margin. Zagreb +1.25 is the line that suits this read most closely, and we also favour the under 3.5 total as a second selection.