Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Union Berlin v 1. FC Köln: 1 November 2026 · 14:30 at An der Alten Försterei (Berlin), with Richard Hempel refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Union Berlin are 16th in the table, on 7 points after 8 matches (1W 4D 3L), and 1. FC Köln are 13th, on 9 points (2W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Union Berlin score 0.9 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.6; for 1. FC Köln the figures are 1.1 scored and 1.6 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Union Berlin: 1W 3D 3L, goals 6–18; 1. FC Köln: 2W 2D 3L, goals 8–11.
- Head to head. From 22 meetings: 10 wins for Union Berlin, 7 wins for 1. FC Köln and 5 draws, with the goals at 28–30.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.48), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 60% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 22; Union Berlin 10 wins, 5 draws, 1. FC Köln 7 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Union Berlin 6–18, 1. FC Köln 8–11.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: Union Berlin 5, 1. FC Köln 6.
Alternative tip: Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2)
Alternative tip: Draw or 1. FC Köln (X2) (probability 65%, best price 1.52). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Union Berlin: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, R. Skov, F. Uduokhai. Absent for 1. FC Köln: R. Ache, T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri, R. van den Berg. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.84 | 3.78 | 2.61 |
| Market average | 2.68 | 3.51 | 2.53 |
| Lowest odds | 2.54 | 3.32 | 2.45 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 78.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.72 | 55.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.14 | 44.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.73 | 34.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.60 | 1.56 | 59.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.38 | 2.30 | 40.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 1/11/26, 13:44. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Union Berlin 1–1 1. FC Köln, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Union Berlin 16th (7 points), 1. FC Köln 13th (9 points).
- Form in the competition: Union Berlin 1W 3D 3L (6:18), 1. FC Köln 2W 2D 3L (8:11).
- H2H: 22 matches: Union Berlin 10W 5D 7L, goals 28–30.
- Absences: Union Berlin 5, 1. FC Köln 6.
Who will win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln: team news and absences
Union Berlin
- A. Ilicillness · will miss the match
- A. Markgrafknee injury · will miss the match
- S. Nsokimuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Skovinjury · will miss the match
- F. Uduokhaired card · will miss the match
1. FC Köln
- R. Achethigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Dallingaknee injury · will miss the match
- T. Hubersknee injury · will miss the match
- I. Rondicinjury · will miss the match
- E. Skhiriankle injury · will miss the match
- R. van den Bergmuscle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 |  VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 | 1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
Recent matches
Union Berlin
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Union BerlinDDDWL1. FC KölnDDLWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln +0 (Asian handicap) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.48).
Who will win Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln?
We estimate: Union Berlin win 35%, draw 27%, 1. FC Köln win 37%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 1 November 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: An der Alten Försterei, Berlin. Referee: Richard Hempel.
Who will be missing?
Union Berlin: A. Ilic, A. Markgraf, S. Nsoki, R. Skov, F. Uduokhai. 1. FC Köln: R. Ache, T. Dallinga, T. Hubers, I. Rondic, E. Skhiri, R. van den Berg. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.77); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 60% (odds 1.60).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.7%), then 1–2 (8.5%) and 0–1 (8.4%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.