Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is West Ham against Southampton on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at London Stadium (London), and Michael Salisbury, England will referee. West Ham (56%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
West Ham vs Southampton: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. West Ham are 8th in the table, on 23 points after 14 matches (6W 5D 3L), and Southampton are 7th, on 24 points (8W 4D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average West Ham score 2.7 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.1; for Southampton the figures are 1.9 scored and 0.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. West Ham: 6W 4D 1L, goals 30–12; Southampton: 6W 3D 2L, goals 21–10.
- Head to head. From 29 meetings: 13 wins for West Ham, 8 wins for Southampton and 8 draws, with the goals at 45–31.
What to expect
For us, West Ham are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.53), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 63% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 29; West Ham 13 wins, 8 draws, Southampton 8 wins.
- An average of 2.6 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: West Ham 30–12, Southampton 21–10.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: West Ham 1, Southampton 3.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 63%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for West Ham: K. Lamadrid. Absent for Southampton: M. Roerslev Rasmussen, F. Downes, C. Larin. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
West Ham vs Southampton: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.75 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Market average | 1.69 | 4.14 | 4.43 |
| Lowest odds | 1.65 | 4.00 | 4.30 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.16 | 1.13 | 83.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.46 | 63.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 2.58 | 36.2% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.35 | 2.18 | 43.2% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.50 | 1.48 | 62.8% |
| BTTS – no | 2.70 | 2.50 | 37.2% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: West Ham 2–1 Southampton, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: West Ham 8th (23 points), Southampton 7th (24 points).
- Form in the competition: West Ham 6W 4D 1L (30:12), Southampton 6W 3D 2L (21:10).
- H2H: 29 matches: West Ham 13W 8D 8L, goals 45–31.
- Absences: West Ham 1, Southampton 3.
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
West Ham vs Southampton: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
West Ham vs Southampton: team news and absences
West Ham
- K. Lamadridinjury · will miss the match
Southampton
- M. Roerslev Rasmussenabsence · will miss the match
- F. Downesankle injury · doubtful
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 | West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
West Ham
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
West HamDLLWWSouthamptonDWWDWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for West Ham vs Southampton?
West Ham -0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.94); Over 2.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win West Ham vs Southampton?
We estimate: West Ham win 56%, draw 23%, Southampton win 21%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: London Stadium, London. Referee: Michael Salisbury, England.
Who will be missing?
West Ham: K. Lamadrid. Southampton: M. Roerslev Rasmussen, F. Downes, C. Larin. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.53); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.75).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.50).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.8%), then 1–1 (9.5%) and 2–0 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.