Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Southampton against QPR on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at St. Mary's Stadium (Southampton), and Tim Robinson will referee. Southampton (49%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Southampton vs QPR: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Southampton are 7th in the table, on 24 points after 14 matches (8W 4D 2L), and QPR are 11th, on 21 points (5W 6D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Southampton score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.0; for QPR the figures are 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Southampton: 7W 3D 2L, goals 24–12; QPR: 5W 5D 2L, goals 20–12.
- Head to head. From 9 meetings: 8 wins for Southampton, 1 win for QPR and 0 draws, with the goals at 21–7.
What to expect
For us, Southampton are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (10.7%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.52), and we rate it at 62%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 62% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 60% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 9; Southampton 8 wins, 0 draws, QPR 1 win.
- An average of 3.1 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Southampton 24–12, QPR 20–12.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 60%.
- Out: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 62%, best price 1.52). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Southampton: F. Downes, C. Larin. Absent for QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Southampton vs QPR: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.00 | 3.95 | 3.79 |
| Market average | 1.91 | 3.74 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.78 | 3.40 | 3.44 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | 1.17 | 80.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 1.57 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.42 | 2.31 | 40.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.54 | 2.44 | 38.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.52 | 1.50 | 61.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.55 | 2.44 | 38.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 13:40. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Southampton 1–1 QPR, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Southampton 7th (24 points), QPR 11th (21 points).
- Form in the competition: Southampton 7W 3D 2L (24:12), QPR 5W 5D 2L (20:12).
- H2H: 9 matches: Southampton 8W 0D 1L, goals 21–7.
- Absences: Southampton 2, QPR 5.
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Southampton vs QPR: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Southampton vs QPR: team news and absences
Southampton
- F. Downesankle injury · doubtful
- C. Larinhamstring injury · doubtful
QPR
- R. Burrellnot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Lampteynot in the squad · will miss the match
- N. Madseninjury · will miss the match
- A. S. Mbengueknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Clarke-Salterinjury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 | Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 |  Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Southampton
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
SouthamptonDWWDWQPRDLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Southampton vs QPR?
Draw or QPR (X2) (2.02); Both teams to score (1.52).
Who will win Southampton vs QPR?
We estimate: Southampton win 49%, draw 25%, QPR win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton. Referee: Tim Robinson.
Who will be missing?
Southampton: F. Downes, C. Larin. QPR: R. Burrell, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue, J. Clarke-Salter. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 60% (odds 1.62); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 40% (odds 2.42).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.52).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.7%), then 2–1 (9.6%) and 1–0 (8.5%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.