Bet with Freshbet →Ajax play ADO Den Haag at home on 22 November 2026 · 13:30 at Johan Cruijff Arena (Amsterdam). For us, Ajax (80%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Ajax are 2nd in the table, on 24 points after 11 matches (7W 3D 1L), and ADO Den Haag are 17th, on 6 points (1W 3D 7L).
What to expect
For us, Ajax are the more likely winners. We estimate a 3–1 score, roughly 4 goals in all, with 2–0 (9.6%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
Odds of 1.20 on the result do not offer much, so it is worth turning to the goals markets: Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.74), which we rate at 56%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 54% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 74% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 74%.
- Out: Ajax 0, ADO Den Haag 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 54%, best price 1.75). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Ajax: no absences. Absent for ADO Den Haag: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.20 | 8.45 | 14.50 |
| Market average | 1.17 | 7.69 | 13.00 |
| Lowest odds | 1.15 | 7.20 | 12.00 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.09 | 1.06 | 88.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.29 | 1.27 | 73.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.60 | 3.54 | 26.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.74 | 1.70 | 55.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.75 | 1.72 | 54.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.05 | 2.03 | 45.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:20. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Ajax 2–0 ADO Den Haag, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Ajax 2nd (24 points), ADO Den Haag 17th (6 points).
- Absences: Ajax 0, ADO Den Haag 0.
Who will win Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Correct score prediction
Ajax vs ADO Den Haag: team news and absences
Ajax
- No reported absences
ADO Den Haag
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 | Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 |  Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
Over 3.5 goals (1.74); Ajax to win (1.20).
Who will win Ajax vs ADO Den Haag?
We estimate: Ajax win 80%, draw 12%, ADO Den Haag win 7%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 22 November 2026, kick-off: 13:30, venue: Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam.
Who will be missing?
Ajax: no absences. ADO Den Haag: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 74% (odds 1.29); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 26% (odds 3.60).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 54% (odds 1.75).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–0 as most likely (9.6%), then 3–0 (9.6%) and 2–1 (8.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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