Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Atalanta against Parma on 2 November 2026 · 19:45 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo), and Valerio Crezzini will referee. Atalanta (65%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Atalanta vs Parma: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Atalanta are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), and Parma are 15th, on 8 points (2W 2D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Atalanta score 1.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.9; for Parma the figures are 0.6 scored and 1.7 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 3W 2D 4L, goals 16–17; Parma: 1W 2D 6L, goals 5–15.
- Head to head. From 20 meetings: 11 wins for Atalanta, 6 wins for Parma and 3 draws, with the goals at 41–29.
What to expect
For us, Atalanta are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 2–1 (9.8%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.53), and we rate it at 64%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 64% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 20; Atalanta 11 wins, 3 draws, Parma 6 wins.
- An average of 3.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Atalanta 16–17, Parma 5–15.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 64%.
- Out: Atalanta 9, Parma 2.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Atalanta: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, T. Kristensen, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca. Absent for Parma: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Parma: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.52 | 5.08 | 6.70 |
| Market average | 1.47 | 4.88 | 6.27 |
| Lowest odds | 1.44 | 4.50 | 5.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.17 | 1.13 | 82.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 1.47 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.63 | 35.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.30 | 2.18 | 43.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.59 | 58.5% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.24 | 41.5% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 2/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Atalanta 2–1 Parma, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 13th (11 points), Parma 15th (8 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 3W 2D 4L (16:17), Parma 1W 2D 6L (5:15).
- H2H: 20 matches: Atalanta 11W 3D 6L, goals 41–29.
- Absences: Atalanta 9, Parma 2.
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Atalanta vs Parma: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Atalanta vs Parma: team news and absences
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Gaetanomuscle injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- T. Kristensenmuscle injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
Parma
- A. Bernabenot in the squad · will miss the match
- L. Valentiabsence · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 | Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AtalantaLDDLWParmaWDLLLHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Atalanta vs Parma?
Parma +1.5 (Asian handicap) (1.77); Over 2.5 goals (1.53).
Who will win Atalanta vs Parma?
We estimate: Atalanta win 65%, draw 20%, Parma win 15%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 2 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Valerio Crezzini.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: R. Bellanova, G. Gaetano, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, T. Kristensen, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca. Parma: A. Bernabe, L. Valenti. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 64% (odds 1.53); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 36% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.8%), then 2–0 (9.8%) and 1–1 (8.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.