Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–4. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Atalanta play Frosinone at home on 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at New Balance Arena (Bergamo); the referee is Livio Marinelli. For us, Atalanta (51%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Atalanta are 13th in the table, on 11 points after 10 matches (3W 2D 5L), and Frosinone are 6th, on 20 points (6W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Atalanta score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Frosinone the figures are 1.9 scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Atalanta: 3W 0D 4L, goals 10–11; Frosinone: 4W 1D 2L, goals 13–9.
- Head to head. From 7 meetings: 4 wins for Atalanta, 1 win for Frosinone and 2 draws, with the goals at 21–6.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 2–1 (8.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Frosinone, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Over 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 71% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 72% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 7; Atalanta 4 wins, 2 draws, Frosinone 1 win.
- An average of 3.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Atalanta 10–11, Frosinone 13–9.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 72%.
- Out: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best price 2.06). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Atalanta: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Absent for Frosinone: F. Grillitsch. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.93 | 4.30 | 3.85 |
| Market average | 1.89 | 4.15 | 3.63 |
| Lowest odds | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.07 | 87.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.34 | 1.31 | 71.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.50 | 3.33 | 28.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 1.89 | 1.82 | 52.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.35 | 1.32 | 70.7% |
| BTTS – no | 3.40 | 3.19 | 29.3% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 12:54. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.7%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Atalanta 2–1 Frosinone, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Atalanta 13th (11 points), Frosinone 6th (20 points).
- Form in the competition: Atalanta 3W 0D 4L (10:11), Frosinone 4W 1D 2L (13:9).
- H2H: 7 matches: Atalanta 4W 2D 1L, goals 21–6.
- Absences: Atalanta 7, Frosinone 1.
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Atalanta vs Frosinone: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Atalanta vs Frosinone: team news and absences
Atalanta
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scalvinithigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Frosinone
- F. Grillitschthigh injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 | Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 |  Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Atalanta
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AtalantaLDDLWFrosinoneWWDWLHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Atalanta vs Frosinone?
Frosinone +0.75 (Asian handicap) (1.84); Over 3.5 goals (1.89).
Who will win Atalanta vs Frosinone?
We estimate: Atalanta win 51%, draw 23%, Frosinone win 26%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: New Balance Arena, Bergamo. Referee: Livio Marinelli.
Who will be missing?
Atalanta: I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scalvini, K. Sulemana. Frosinone: F. Grillitsch. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 72% (odds 1.34); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 28% (odds 3.50).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 71% (odds 1.35).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (8.9%), then 1–1 (8.2%) and 2–2 (6.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.