Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Fiorentina v Atalanta: 29 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stadio Artemio Franchi (Florence), with Federico La Penna refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Fiorentina are 16th in the table, on 8 points after 10 matches (2W 2D 6L), and Atalanta are 13th, on 11 points (3W 2D 5L).
- Attack and defence. On average Fiorentina score 1.1 goals a match in the competition and concede 2.4; for Atalanta the figures are 1.8 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Fiorentina: 1W 1D 6L, goals 9–19; Atalanta: 3W 1D 4L, goals 14–15.
- Head to head. From 37 meetings: 17 wins for Fiorentina, 10 wins for Atalanta and 10 draws, with the goals at 59–51.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–2 score estimate, roughly 4 goals in all, and 1–1 (10.2%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Over 2.5 goals (odds 1.57), and we rate it at 65%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 68% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 65% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 37; Fiorentina 17 wins, 10 draws, Atalanta 10 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Fiorentina 9–19, Atalanta 14–15.
- Expected: roughly 4 goals; over 2.5 goals: 65%.
- Out: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Under 3.5 goals (probability 55%, best price 1.84). With roughly 4 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Absent for Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.47 | 3.86 | 3.10 |
| Market average | 2.35 | 3.68 | 2.84 |
| Lowest odds | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.15 | 1.12 | 83.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.57 | 1.46 | 64.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.68 | 35.3% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.20 | 2.10 | 45.5% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.37 | 68.0% |
| BTTS – no | 3.10 | 2.91 | 32.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 29/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.1%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Fiorentina 1–1 Atalanta, roughly 4 goals in total.
- Table: Fiorentina 16th (8 points), Atalanta 13th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Fiorentina 1W 1D 6L (9:19), Atalanta 3W 1D 4L (14:15).
- H2H: 37 matches: Fiorentina 17W 10D 10L, goals 59–51.
- Absences: Fiorentina 5, Atalanta 8.
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Fiorentina vs Atalanta: team news and absences
Fiorentina
- A. Attaabsence · will miss the match
- F. Parisiknee injury · will miss the match
- M. Pongracicmuscle injury · will miss the match
- R. Sottilback injury · will miss the match
- L. Ranieriabsence · doubtful
Atalanta
- R. Bellanovathigh injury · will miss the match
- I. Hienmuscle injury · will miss the match
- F. Kessiecalf injury · will miss the match
- S. Kolasinacthigh injury · will miss the match
- O. Kossounouthigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Raspadorithigh injury · will miss the match
- G. Scamaccathigh injury · will miss the match
- K. Sulemanaknee injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lazio | 10 | 9-1-0 | 24:8 | 28 |
| 2 |  Inter | 10 | 8-1-1 | 26:13 | 25 |
| 3 |  AS Roma | 10 | 7-3-0 | 28:10 | 24 |
| 4 |  Como | 10 | 7-2-1 | 18:8 | 23 |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 10 | 6-3-1 | 21:12 | 21 |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 10 | 6-2-2 | 24:14 | 20 |
| 7 |  Juventus | 10 | 5-2-3 | 13:10 | 17 |
| 8 |  Napoli | 10 | 4-2-4 | 17:13 | 14 |
| 9 |  Bologna | 10 | 4-2-4 | 14:13 | 14 |
| 10 |  Torino | 10 | 4-1-5 | 14:16 | 13 |
| 11 |  Genoa | 10 | 4-1-5 | 10:14 | 13 |
| 12 |  Cagliari | 10 | 4-1-5 | 9:15 | 13 |
| 13 | Atalanta | 10 | 3-2-5 | 16:20 | 11 |
| 14 |  Lecce | 10 | 3-0-7 | 11:21 | 9 |
| 15 |  Parma | 10 | 2-2-6 | 8:15 | 8 |
| 16 | Fiorentina | 10 | 2-2-6 | 15:23 | 8 |
| 17 |  Sassuolo | 10 | 2-2-6 | 16:26 | 8 |
| 18 |  Monza | 10 | 2-1-7 | 17:24 | 7 |
| 19 |  Udinese | 10 | 1-2-7 | 11:23 | 5 |
| 20 |  Venezia | 10 | 1-0-9 | 6:20 | 3 |
Recent matches
Fiorentina
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
FiorentinaWDLLLAtalantaLDDLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Over 2.5 goals (1.57); Fiorentina or draw (1X) (1.48).
Who will win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
We estimate: Fiorentina win 41%, draw 26%, Atalanta win 34%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 29 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence. Referee: Federico La Penna.
Who will be missing?
Fiorentina: A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic, R. Sottil, L. Ranieri. Atalanta: R. Bellanova, I. Hien, F. Kessie, S. Kolasinac, O. Kossounou, G. Raspadori, G. Scamacca, K. Sulemana. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 65% (odds 1.57); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 35% (odds 2.80).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 68% (odds 1.40).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.2%), then 2–1 (8.7%) and 1–2 (7.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.