Bet with Freshbet →It is Auxerre against Paris FC on 7 November 2026 · 16:15 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps (Auxerre), and Marc Bollengier will referee. Paris FC (53%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Auxerre vs Paris FC betting prediction
Auxerre host Paris FC at the Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps in Ligue 1 Matchweek 10, kick-off 16:15 on 7 November 2026. The home side sit 14th, the visitors fourth, and the gap between them is the first thing we look at. On the numbers we trust, Paris FC have the better case, though the price on them is not a bargain.
Auxerre's home record is holding up poorly
Auxerre have 10 points from nine matches in this competition, with three wins, one draw and five defeats. They have scored 13 and conceded 23, which works out at 1.4 scored and 2.6 conceded per match. At home they are 2-1-1 with five goals for and five against, so they pick up points on their own ground but do not keep much out there.
Their last five matches in all competitions, oldest first, were a 2-1 home win over Stade Brestois 29 on 20 September 2026, a 4-1 defeat at Rennes on 11 October, a 3-1 win at Le Havre on 18 October, a 1-1 home draw with Le Mans on 25 October and a 5-1 defeat at Strasbourg on 1 November. Across those five, the count is 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 8 goals scored and 12 conceded. The Strasbourg result is the one that worries us most, because it came after a draw and shows how quickly this back line can be opened.
Paris FC travel with the better numbers
Paris FC are fourth on 17 points from nine, with five wins, two draws and two defeats. They have 16 goals for and 10 against, averaging 1.8 scored and 1.1 conceded per match. Away they are 1-1-2 with four scored and five conceded, so they are not a machine on the road, but they have not needed to be.
Their last five in all competitions, oldest first, were a 2-1 home win over Strasbourg on 19 September 2026, a 1-0 defeat at Lorient on 10 October, a 4-3 home win over Rennes on 18 October, a 2-1 defeat at Lens on 24 October and a 3-1 home win over Monaco on 1 November. The count there is 3 wins, no draws and 2 defeats, with 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. The 3-1 win over Monaco is the result we trust most from either side's recent run.
Meetings and absences
The last 15 meetings are finely balanced: Auxerre have won four, Paris FC five, six have been drawn, and the goals stand at 16 each. The latest was a goalless draw at Auxerre on 8 February 2026, before which Paris FC drew 1-1 at Paris FC on 29 November 2025. Earlier, Auxerre beat Paris FC 2-0 at home on 4 May 2024 and Paris FC won 2-1 at Auxerre on 1 February 2022. History does not settle the question, but Paris FC's five wins give us a small reason to lean their way.
There are no absentees reported for either side, so we expect both teams at close to full strength.
Best bet for Auxerre vs Paris FC: Paris FC to win
We like Paris FC to win, and we back it at the main price. Paris FC have won three of their last five in all competitions, they sit fourth on 17 points against Auxerre's 14th place and 10 points, and they have won five of the last 15 meetings to Auxerre's four. The bookmakers give Paris FC a 53% chance at best odds of 1.87, against 23% for Auxerre (best odds 4.50) and 25% for the draw (best odds 4.11). The bookmaker margin on the result is 6.0%, so the price is not generous, but it is fair for the case we see.
Paris FC to win at odds 1.87 (chance 53%)
The bet settles on 0-1, 1-2 and 0-2, and loses on 1-1, 1-0 and 2-1. Those last three are exactly where a home side that scores can take the points off us, which is why we would not stake more than a normal unit on it.
Second tip and a few side bets
Our second tip is under 3.5 goals at odds 1.47, which the market rates at a 65% chance. It wins on 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 and 2-1, so it covers the main tip's losing scores as well as its winners. We are happy to pair the two.
Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.47 (chance 65%)
Beyond the tips, these are the bets we would consider:
- Draw or Paris FC (X2) at odds 1.26, a 77% chance from the market, the safest route if you want the result without a Paris FC win needing to come on the day.
- Paris FC -0.5 at odds 1.79, a 54% chance, which means Paris FC must win by 1 or more. It is a step up from the straight win and we would only take it at this price.
- Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.24, a 77% chance, a cheap way to back the goals side of the game without leaning on a big total.
Paris FC at 1.87 is the bet we would put our name to. The table, the recent results and the meetings all lean their way, and the one thing that could spoil it is a home side that finds the net more than once.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.50 | 4.11 | 1.87 |
| Market average | 4.23 | 3.87 | 1.78 |
| Lowest odds | 3.88 | 3.44 | 1.73 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.21 | 77.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.77 | 1.72 | 55.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.22 | 2.15 | 44.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.80 | 2.71 | 34.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.65 | 56.6% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.15 | 43.4% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.9%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Auxerre 1–1 Paris FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Auxerre 14th (10 points), Paris FC 4th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Auxerre 3W 1D 5L (13:23), Paris FC 5W 2D 2L (16:10).
- H2H: 15 matches: Auxerre 4W 6D 5L, goals 16–16.
- Absences: Auxerre 0, Paris FC 0.
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Auxerre vs Paris FC: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Auxerre vs Paris FC: team news and absences
Auxerre
- No reported absences
Paris FC
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 |  Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Auxerre
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AuxerreLDWLWParis FCWLWLWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Paris FC to win (1.87); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
We estimate: Auxerre win 22%, draw 24%, Paris FC win 53%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 7 November 2026, kick-off: 16:15, venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre. Referee: Marc Bollengier.
Who will be missing?
Auxerre: no absences. Paris FC: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 56% (odds 1.77); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 44% (odds 2.22).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (10.9%), then 0–1 (9.9%) and 1–2 (9.8%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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