Toulouse vs Strasbourg: prediction, tip and odds, 6 November 2026, Ligue 1

Toulouse vs Strasbourg betting prediction

The Stadium de Toulouse stages Toulouse against Strasbourg on 6 November 2026, with kick-off at 19:45 in Ligue 1 Matchweek 10. Each team has 10 points from nine matches, and neither side is in especially good form. We lean towards the away team not losing, and our reasoning is set out below.

Toulouse at home and the goals they give away

Across this competition, Toulouse have collected 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats, leaving them 12th in the table. They have scored 12 and conceded 13, which works out to 1.3 and 1.4 per match. Playing at home, their return is 1 win, 1 draw and 2 defeats, with 3 goals scored and 5 conceded. That is not the kind of home form that tempts us to back them to win.

Across their previous five matches in every competition, they have collected 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 8 times and conceding 6. The sequence opened with a 3-2 victory at home against Le Havre on 19 September, followed by a 2-2 draw at Monaco on 10 October. They then recorded a 3-0 away success at Le Mans on 16 October and a home stalemate with no goals against Troyes on 25 October. Most recently, they fell 2-0 at Marseille on 1 November. All five fixtures span every competition, so this run gives a different picture than the league table does.

Strasbourg away from home and in form

Strasbourg are 13th in this competition with 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats. They have scored 17 and conceded 19, which is 1.9 for and 2.1 against per match. Away from home the figures are 1 win and 4 defeats, with 8 scored and 13 conceded. That away record is the first thing we would weigh against them.

Across all competitions, Strasbourg's last five games produced a single win, no draws and four defeats, with 8 goals scored and 11 conceded. That lone success was a 5-1 win against Auxerre at home on 1 November. Earlier, they lost 2-1 away at Paris FC on 19 September, 2-1 away at Nice on 11 October, 1-3 at home against Paris Saint Germain on 17 October and 3-0 away at Rennes on 25 October. Both teams found the net in four of these games, and Strasbourg were goalless in only one. Each of the five exceeded 2.5 goals, but none ended without a conceded goal, and that is the statistic that concerns us most.

Strasbourg hold the edge in the meetings

In their last 14 head-to-head matches, Strasbourg have claimed 7 wins, Toulouse 3, and 4 have ended level. Strasbourg have scored 22 goals in that run, while Toulouse have found the net 16 times. The latest meeting, on 3 May 2026, saw Toulouse take a 1-2 victory away at Strasbourg. Earlier, Toulouse won 1-0 on 6 December 2025, and Strasbourg won 2-1 on 16 March 2025. We still rate those seven Strasbourg victories highly, despite the most recent result going the other way. Neither club has reported any injuries or suspensions, so the squad situation leaves our assessment unchanged.

How the odds frame the likely outcome

Toulouse are the bookmakers' choice to win at 46% (best odds 2.11), with the draw priced at 25% (3.98) and Strasbourg at 29% (3.51). The overround on the 1X2 market sits at 6.1%. Expected goals come out at 2 for Toulouse and 1 for Strasbourg, roughly three in total, and the most probable exact scores are 1-1 at 10.6%, 2-1 at 9.3% and 1-0 at 7.9%. These figures reflect what the odds imply, not what has happened in previous meetings.

Our top pick is the draw or a Strasbourg win

Draw or Strasbourg (X2) at odds 1.83 (chance 54%). In the last 14 head-to-head meetings, Strasbourg have come out on top 7 times, while Toulouse have managed 3. Bookmakers price this double at 54% with the best available odds of 1.83. The value is modest, yet Strasbourg's better recent history against this opponent makes the pick worth backing.
This tip wins on 1-1, 1-2 and 2-2. It loses on 2-1, 1-0 and 2-0.

Another tip: Both teams to score

Both teams to score, odds 1.55 (62% chance). Strasbourg have found the net in 4 of their last 5 games and have not kept a clean sheet in any of them, while an expected total near three goals fits a contest in which both sides get on the scoresheet. Bookmakers price this at 62%, a figure we share. The bet wins with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 or 2-2. It loses with 1-0 or 2-0.

Three side bets we would consider

• Strasbourg +1 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.44 (chance 67%). Strasbourg only need to avoid a defeat by two goals or more; if they lose by exactly one, the stake comes back. It pairs well with our main tip, as either a draw or a Strasbourg victory keeps it in play.
• Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.66 (chance 59%). With the market pointing to roughly three goals in total, this pick has a sound basis, and every one of Strasbourg's last five matches went past 2.5 goals.
• Under 10.5 corners at odds 1.35 (chance 68%). A low-risk price that we would take as a modest addition rather than a main stake.

Toulouse play at home, yet their home results and defensive figures steer us clear of them at 2.11. Strasbourg's head-to-head history is the side we prefer, and we would place a measured stake on the double and on the BTTS selection. That is where our money goes on this one.