Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lens v Paris FC: 24 October 2026 · 19:45 at Stade Bollaert-Delelis (Lens), with M. Vernice refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Lens vs Paris FC: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lens are 9th in the table, on 13 points after 9 matches (4W 1D 4L), and Paris FC are 4th, on 17 points (5W 2D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lens score 2.0 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Paris FC the figures are 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lens: 3W 1D 3L, goals 14–11; Paris FC: 4W 2D 1L, goals 12–7.
- Head to head. From 14 meetings: 7 wins for Lens, 3 wins for Paris FC and 4 draws, with the goals at 18–10.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 2–1 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.4%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Paris FC, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.54), and we rate it at 63%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 62% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 58% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 14; Lens 7 wins, 4 draws, Paris FC 3 wins.
- An average of 2.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lens 14–11, Paris FC 12–7.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 58%.
- Out: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Alternative tip: Lens or draw (1X)
Alternative tip: Lens or draw (1X) (probability 64%, best price 1.50). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lens: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Absent for Paris FC: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lens vs Paris FC: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.65 | 3.66 | 2.77 |
| Market average | 2.56 | 3.53 | 2.69 |
| Lowest odds | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.22 | 1.19 | 79.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.69 | 1.64 | 57.9% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.36 | 2.27 | 42.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.64 | 2.53 | 37.3% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.53 | 1.50 | 62.1% |
| BTTS – no | 2.50 | 2.45 | 37.9% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.8%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lens 1–1 Paris FC, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Lens 9th (13 points), Paris FC 4th (17 points).
- Form in the competition: Lens 3W 1D 3L (14:11), Paris FC 4W 2D 1L (12:7).
- H2H: 14 matches: Lens 7W 4D 3L, goals 18–10.
- Absences: Lens 5, Paris FC 2.
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lens vs Paris FC: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lens vs Paris FC: team news and absences
Lens
- O. Edouardinjury · will miss the match
- I. Ganiouknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Graditmuscle injury · will miss the match
- M. Nawrockiknee injury · will miss the match
- A. Simamuscle injury · will miss the match
Paris FC
- J. Ikonethigh injury · will miss the match
- N. Sanguimuscle injury · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 9 | 6-2-1 | 21:10 | 20 |
| 2 |  Lille | 9 | 5-3-1 | 12:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  Lyon | 9 | 5-2-2 | 15:7 | 17 |
| 4 | Paris FC | 9 | 5-2-2 | 16:10 | 17 |
| 5 |  Rennes | 9 | 5-1-3 | 20:19 | 16 |
| 6 |  Marseille | 9 | 5-0-4 | 20:13 | 15 |
| 7 |  Monaco | 9 | 4-3-2 | 12:10 | 15 |
| 8 |  Nice | 9 | 4-2-3 | 13:12 | 14 |
| 9 | Lens | 9 | 4-1-4 | 16:13 | 13 |
| 10 |  Stade Brestois 29 | 9 | 3-3-3 | 16:12 | 12 |
| 11 |  Lorient | 9 | 3-3-3 | 7:8 | 12 |
| 12 |  Toulouse | 9 | 2-4-3 | 12:13 | 10 |
| 13 |  Strasbourg | 9 | 3-1-5 | 17:19 | 10 |
| 14 |  Auxerre | 9 | 3-1-5 | 13:23 | 10 |
| 15 |  Angers | 9 | 2-2-5 | 9:17 | 8 |
| 16 |  Estac Troyes | 9 | 2-2-5 | 7:16 | 8 |
| 17 |  Le Mans | 9 | 1-4-4 | 11:18 | 7 |
| 18 |  Le Havre | 9 | 0-2-7 | 9:20 | 2 |
Recent matches
Lens
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LensLWWWLParis FCWLWLWHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lens vs Paris FC?
Paris FC +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Under 3.5 goals (1.54).
Who will win Lens vs Paris FC?
We estimate: Lens win 37%, draw 27%, Paris FC win 36%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens. Referee: M. Vernice.
Who will be missing?
Lens: O. Edouard, I. Ganiou, J. Gradit, M. Nawrocki, A. Sima. Paris FC: J. Ikone, N. Sangui. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 58% (odds 1.69); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 42% (odds 2.36).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 62% (odds 1.53).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.4%), then 2–1 (8.5%) and 1–2 (8.3%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.