Bet with Freshbet →It is AZ Alkmaar against Groningen on 8 November 2026 · 15:45 at AFAS Stadion (Alkmaar). AZ Alkmaar (62%) start as favourites in our view. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen betting prediction
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen at the AFAS Stadion on 8 November 2026, kick-off 15:45, in matchweek 12 of the Eredivisie. The question this match turns on is whether AZ's home record and the bookmakers' faith in them outweigh a Groningen side that scores freely. We think they do, but not by a margin that makes the goals market boring.
Who arrives in better shape?
In this competition AZ are fifth with 20 points from 11 matches, six wins, two draws and three defeats, with 20 scored and 13 conceded. Groningen are eighth with 15 points, four wins, three draws and four defeats, and a goal tally of 26:24. Those are this competition's figures only. In all competitions the picture for AZ is less tidy: two wins, one draw and two defeats in their last five, the last two a 0-2 home loss to Twente and a 1-0 defeat at Ajax. Groningen's last five are also two wins, one draw and two defeats, and the latest was a 2-3 home loss to Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side is clearly on a run, so we are not going to lean on form alone.
Goals at both ends
This is where the match gets interesting. Groningen score 2.4 goals per match in this competition against AZ's 1.8, but they also concede 2.2 to AZ's 1.2. AZ are the tighter defence, and that is the best argument for the home side keeping the scoreline under control. In all competitions, Groningen's last five produced more than 2.5 goals in five matches, so their games have been busy. The bookmakers expect AZ to score about two and Groningen about one, around three goals in total, with 2-1, 1-1 and 2-0 the most likely exact scores. Treat those as the market's view of this game, not as a record of how the two have played.
Meetings that favour the home side
AZ have the long-run edge. In the last 34 meetings they have won 16, drawn nine and lost nine to Groningen, scoring 52 to 35. The most recent meeting went the other way, though: Groningen won 3-0 at home on 22/3/26. Before that, AZ had won 4-1 and 3-0 in 2025 and 3-1 in December 2024, with a 0-0 draw in August 2024 and a 1-0 win in March 2023. We read that as a solid AZ habit rather than a guarantee, and it is one reason we take the hosts seriously.
No injury news on either side
No absences have been reported for AZ Alkmaar or Groningen. That removes one of the usual reasons to hedge a team selection and leaves the match to the numbers above.
Our tip and why we like it
Our main tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds 1.85 (chance 53%). The argument is simply the price: the market gives it 53% at best odds of 1.85. It is a fair number rather than a strong one, and with the expected total around three goals it sits close to the line. It wins on 2-1, 1-1, 2-0, 1-0 and 3-0, and loses on 3-1, so a goal too many is the way it dies.
Our second tip is AZ Alkmaar to win at odds 1.55 (chance 61%). This is the one we would back. AZ are fifth with 20 points and Groningen eighth with 15, and AZ have won 3 and drawn 1 at home in this competition against a single defeat. They have taken 16 of the last 34 meetings to Groningen's 9, and the market gives them 61% at best odds of 1.55. It wins on 2-1, 2-0, 3-1, 1-0 and 3-0, and loses only on 1-1. We would rather trust the home side's record than the total.
Other bets worth a look
- AZ Alkmaar +0 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23 (chance 78%): a AZ Alkmaar win wins, a draw returns the stake, a defeat loses. The lowest-risk way to back the home side.
- AZ Alkmaar -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.38 (chance 69%): half the stake on AZ Alkmaar -0.5, half on AZ Alkmaar +0. A little more cover against a draw than the straight win at 1.55.
- Both teams to score at odds 1.50 (chance 64%): both teams scored in four of Groningen's last five and in two of AZ's, so the market expects goals at both ends.
The verdict
Our money goes on AZ to win, with the under 3.5 as the smaller stake. AZ's home record and their head-to-head edge are the reasons, and the goals line is there to take the edge off the price. If you want less risk, the Asian handicap at +0 is the clean alternative. Enjoy the match at AFAS.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.55 | 4.80 | 5.52 |
| Market average | 1.51 | 4.52 | 5.28 |
| Lowest odds | 1.45 | 4.07 | 4.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.14 | 1.10 | 85.0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 1.39 | 67.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.94 | 2.89 | 32.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.13 | 2.02 | 46.8% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.52 | 1.47 | 63.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.60 | 2.53 | 36.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 5/11/26, 03:20. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 7.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: AZ Alkmaar 2–1 Groningen, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: AZ Alkmaar 5th (20 points), Groningen 8th (15 points).
- Form in the competition: AZ Alkmaar 6W 2D 3L (20:13), Groningen 4W 3D 4L (26:24).
- H2H: 34 matches: AZ Alkmaar 16W 9D 9L, goals 52–35.
- Absences: AZ Alkmaar 0, Groningen 0.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen: team news and absences
AZ Alkmaar
- No reported absences
Groningen
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 11 | 7-4-0 | 33:12 | 25 |
| 2 |  Ajax | 11 | 7-3-1 | 30:13 | 24 |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 11 | 7-2-2 | 35:13 | 23 |
| 4 |  Twente | 11 | 7-2-2 | 28:10 | 23 |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6-2-3 | 20:13 | 20 |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 11 | 5-4-2 | 18:18 | 19 |
| 7 |  Heerenveen | 11 | 5-3-3 | 19:13 | 18 |
| 8 | Groningen | 11 | 4-3-4 | 26:24 | 15 |
| 9 |  Cambuur | 11 | 4-3-4 | 23:22 | 15 |
| 10 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 11 | 3-5-3 | 23:27 | 14 |
| 11 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 11 | 3-3-5 | 20:26 | 12 |
| 12 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3-3-5 | 19:31 | 12 |
| 13 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2-5-4 | 17:19 | 11 |
| 14 |  PEC Zwolle | 11 | 3-2-6 | 12:23 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 11 | 3-2-6 | 16:28 | 11 |
| 16 |  Telstar | 11 | 2-3-6 | 16:23 | 9 |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 11 | 1-3-7 | 13:24 | 6 |
| 18 |  Willem II | 11 | 0-2-9 | 10:39 | 2 |
Recent matches
AZ Alkmaar
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
AZ AlkmaarLLDLWGroningenLDLWWHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Under 3.5 goals (1.85); AZ Alkmaar to win (1.55).
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
We estimate: AZ Alkmaar win 62%, draw 21%, Groningen win 18%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 8 November 2026, kick-off: 15:45, venue: AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar.
Who will be missing?
AZ Alkmaar: no absences. Groningen: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 68% (odds 1.44); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 32% (odds 2.94).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 63% (odds 1.52).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 2–1 as most likely (9.6%), then 1–1 (8.3%) and 2–0 (8.0%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.