Benevento vs Avellino: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Serie B

Benevento vs Avellino betting prediction

Benevento host Avellino at the Stadio Ciro Vigorito on 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 18:30 in Serie B Matchweek 11. Bookmaker odds put Benevento at 51% to win, a draw at 26% and Avellino at 23%, with expected goals of 2 for the hosts and 1 for the visitors. We think the home side deserve the nod, yet the rivalry history has us reluctant to pay too much for it.

Are the two sides really this close?

Across this competition, the two sides are level on points: 15 from 10 matches, built on 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats apiece. Benevento occupy sixth place, while Avellino sit one spot higher in fifth. Avellino edge the attack, with 15 goals scored against Benevento's 14, and both sides concede at a rate of 1.0 per game. The picture changes once the table is divided by venue. At home, Benevento have collected 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, with a goal record of 10:7. Away from home, Avellino have taken 1 win, 2 draws and 1 defeat, scoring 4 and conceding 5. That home-and-away contrast is the main reason we favour the hosts. These figures cover this competition only, so cup or other fixtures are excluded.

Which side is more likely to score first?

Benevento's case rests on their home scoring: 10 goals from 6 games at home in this competition, a return that lines up with an expected-goals figure of 2. Avellino average 1.5 goals a game in this competition, the strongest attacking output on the page, so the visitors are unlikely to be held scoreless. Both defences have let in 1.0 a match.

What do the last five matches tell us?

There is little to choose between the two. Across every competition, Benevento have taken 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat from their last five, scoring 8 and conceding 5. Avellino also finished that run with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat, though they scored 8 and conceded only 4. Benevento's latest match ended in a 2-0 defeat at Cremonese, following a 3-0 away win at Arezzo. Avellino won 2-0 at home to Pisa in their last outing and drew 1-1 at Virtus Entella before that. These numbers cover all fixtures, so they are not a reflection of the league standings, yet they point to two teams in comparable form.

Does the head to head favour anyone?

The numbers lean toward Avellino, and we cannot set this aside. Across their last six head-to-head games, Benevento have taken one win, two draws and three defeats, scoring 6 and conceding 8. Avellino prevailed 2-1 on 30 March 2025 and 1-0 on 15 April 2024. The lone Benevento success in that stretch is a 2-1 home win on 1 May 2017.
Six matches is a thin sample, and each meeting had its own context, yet the trend points in one direction, and we would be wrong to dismiss it.

Is anyone missing for either side?

Neither side has flagged any injuries or suspensions, which leaves the team sheets untouched. Our read rests on league position, form over recent weeks and the head-to-head history.

Which bet do we back, and why?

Benevento -0.5 (Asian handicap) is our pick, priced at 1.87 with a 52% chance of landing. That line demands a win by at least one goal, so anything other than a home victory settles the bet against us. Three factors support it: across their last five matches in every competition, Benevento have dropped just one result. Within this tournament, their home record reads 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat. Bookmakers also put their chance at 52%, and the best available price is 1.87. This isn't a one-sided call, but we consider it the most sound value on the card.

Here is how the main tip plays out across the most probable final scores (home-away): a 1-1 draw loses; 1-0 wins; 2-1 wins; 2-0 wins; 0-1 loses; 0-0 loses.

Another tip: Both teams to score

Our second pick is both teams to score at 1.80, which the numbers put at a 53% chance. Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 outings, while Avellino have managed the same in only 1 of theirs. In Avellino's last 5 games, both sides found the back of the net in 3 of them. With roughly 3 goals projected for this fixture, the scoring pattern lines up with both teams getting on the scoresheet, and the price of 1.80 reflects that 53% likelihood. The main threat is one side failing to score, and this selection loses in the 1-0 type of result.

Here is how the second tip plays out across the most probable final scorelines (home-away): a 1-1 draw wins; a 1-0 home win loses; a 2-1 home win wins; a 2-0 home win loses; a 0-1 away win loses; a 0-0 draw loses.

Safer options if you want to stay with Benevento

If you back the hosts but would rather lower your risk, there are safer routes to consider:

• Benevento or draw (1X) at odds 1.25, with a chance of 77%.
• Benevento +0.5 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.23, with a chance of 77%. At +0.5 the stake pays out as long as Benevento do not lose by a margin of 1 or more.
• Over 1.5 goals at odds 1.32, with a chance of 73%, which suits the expected total without needing a particular result.

Our final pick: 1-1, and why it splits our tips

Our pick for the scoreline to watch is 1-1, which shares the top spot with 1-0 at 11.9% as the most likely exact result. That single outcome lands our second tip while undermining our main one, so it is the trade-off to weigh before you stake. A narrow Benevento victory would save the handicap, whereas a draw with both teams on the scoresheet would cash the goals bet. Our case rests on the home advantage, yet we would stop short of backing it with a large stake.