Padova vs Empoli: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Serie B

Padova vs Empoli betting prediction

Padova host Empoli on 7 November 2026 at Stadio Euganeo in a Serie B clash that pits a mid‑table side against a team fighting near the bottom. Both clubs have recorded identical scoring rates of one goal per game this season, yet Padova enjoy a slightly better defensive record, conceding 1.1 goals per match compared with Empoli’s 1.7. No players have been listed as absent for either side, so the match will likely be decided by recent form, home advantage and the subtle edge offered by the Asian handicap.

Form of Padova and Empoli

Padova sit ninth with 14 points from ten matches (4‑2‑4). Their overall record this season is four wins, two draws and four defeats, with ten goals scored and eleven conceded, giving an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.1 goals conceded per game. At home they have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, scoring five and conceding five. Their last five fixtures show a mixed run: a 1‑1 draw away at Catanzaro on 31 October, a 2‑0 home win over Südtirol on 27 October, a 1‑0 away victory at Avellino on 24 October, a 1‑2 home loss to Virtus Entella on 17 October and a 0‑2 home defeat by Carrarese on 11 October.

Empoli occupy the eighteenth spot with eight points from ten games (2‑2‑6). Their overall record this season is two wins, two draws and six defeats, with ten goals scored and seventeen conceded, also averaging one goal scored per match but a higher 1.7 goals conceded per match. Away they have one win, one draw and three losses, scoring five and conceding eight. In their most recent five matches they drew 2‑2 at home with Juve Stabia on 1 November, lost 2‑1 away to Cesena on 27 October, fell 0‑2 at home to Vicenza Virtus on 23 October, drew 1‑1 away at Ascoli on 17 October and suffered a 2‑4 home loss to Palermo on 10 October.

Padova vs Empoli: head‑to‑head

The two sides have met twice this season. Padova won 1‑0 at home on 12 April 2026, a narrow victory that gave them three points and a clean sheet. Empoli turned the tables later in the season, winning 3‑1 away on 23 August 2025, scoring three goals while conceding only one. Across the two meetings the goal tally stands at three for Empoli and two for Padova, indicating a slight offensive edge for the visitors in their previous encounter.

Bookmakers odds and Asian handicap

Bookmakers assign a 43 % probability to a Padova win (best odds 2.20), 29 % to a draw (best odds 3.38) and 28 % to an Empoli victory (best odds 3.44). The Asian handicap market shows Padova -0.25 at odds 1.93 with a 51 % implied chance, while Empoli +0.25 offers 49 % at odds 1.98. Alternative handicap lines give Padova -0.5 (44 % at 2.20) and -0.75 (38 % at 2.60), and Empoli +0.5 (56 % at 1.72) and +0.75 (62 % at 1.52). The draw‑no‑bet line of Padova +0 at odds 1.58 reflects a 61 % chance of Padova not losing, while Padova +0.25 at odds 1.42 indicates a 67 % chance of either a win or a draw.

In the goals market, the probability of over 1.5 goals is 72 % at odds 1.34, while under 1.5 goals carries a 28 % chance at odds 3.40. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 48 % (odds 2.05) and under 2.5 at 52 % (odds 1.84). For the higher threshold, over 3.5 goals is given a 28 % chance (odds 3.54) and under 3.5 a 72 % chance (odds 1.31). Both teams to score (BTTS) is estimated at 53 % (odds 1.78) versus 47 % for no BTTS (odds 2.01). The expected goals model rounds both sides to one goal each, suggesting a total of about two goals.

Our main tip and second tip

Padova -0.25 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.93 (chance 51 %). The combination of Padova’s superior defensive record, home advantage and a higher win probability justifies a narrow handicap in their favour. The -0.25 line means a win for Padova will be fully settled, while a draw will refund half the stake, offering a balanced risk‑reward profile.

Both teams to score at odds 1.78 (chance 53 %). Both clubs have found the net in each of their last five matches, and the expected goals model predicts one goal each, supporting a BTTS outcome. The odds also reflect a slight market edge over the 47 % chance of a clean sheet for either side.

Other bets worth a look

• Safer option: Padova +0 (draw no bet) at odds 1.58, reflecting a 61 % chance of Padova not losing. This bet refunds the stake if the match ends in a draw, protecting against the risk of a narrow loss.
• Value alternative: BTTS – yes at odds 1.78 (53 % chance). The BTTS market aligns with recent scoring patterns and the expected two‑goal total.
• Goals market: Over 1.5 goals carries a 72 % chance at odds 1.34; under 1.5 goals has a 28 % chance at odds 3.40. Given both teams average one goal per game, the over 1.5 line is statistically favoured.
• Exact score probabilities: The most likely exact scores are 1‑1 (12.5 %), 1‑0 (11.3 %), and 2‑1 (9.0 %). These three outcomes together account for more than a third of the probability distribution, making them sensible targets for score‑specific wagers.

Considering Padova’s home form, which includes two wins, one draw and two defeats with an even goal balance, and Empoli’s away struggles, which feature only one win, one draw and three defeats with a negative goal difference, the match is poised to be tightly contested. The marginally better defensive record of Padova (1.1 goals conceded per match versus Empoli’s 1.7) suggests they are more likely to keep the scoreline low, yet both sides have demonstrated the ability to score regularly in recent games. This convergence of factors points toward a match that will likely produce at least two goals, making the Padova -0.25 handicap and the BTTS market the most compelling choices for bettors seeking value.