Pisa vs Südtirol: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Serie B

Pisa vs Südtirol betting prediction

Our pick for Pisa against Südtirol is Pisa -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.80, chance 55%. We back the home side to come out on top, yet we have doubts about a comfortable winning margin, which is why this line fits the fixture better than a plain match-result bet: a single-goal victory still pays out partly, with half the stake returned.

Pisa's table position overstates how well they perform at home

Pisa occupy eighth place in the table after 10 games, collecting 15 points through a record of four victories, three stalemates and three losses. Their attack has found the net 18 times, while their defence has let in 15. Playing at their own ground tells a more mixed story: two wins, one draw and two reverses, with nine goals netted and ten shipped. Südtirol, in 10th, have 14 points from three triumphs and five draws, and their tally reads 11 goals for against 10. On the road they have claimed a single win and a single draw, losing twice, and have found the net five times while letting in seven.
Every figure above relates solely to this league campaign, so cup ties and other competitions are excluded.

The per-match averages tell the same story. Pisa score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game, Südtirol score 1.1 and concede 1.0. Pisa concede more at the back, and that is the reason we are not willing to back a simple win at the lowest price.

Both sides have played five, yet the numbers tell two different stories

Over their last five matches in every competition, Pisa have collected two victories, two draws and a single loss. They have found the net 10 times and let in seven. Their 3-0 success away to Vicenza Virtus and 3-1 home triumph against Cremonese show their potential when results break their way, while the 3-3 draw with Palermo reveals the flip side. The most recent fixture ended 2-0 at Avellino on 1 November, which is the only defeat across that stretch.

Südtirol have gone five matches without a win across all competitions, collecting three draws and two defeats while netting just twice and shipping seven. Three of those five ended without a goal for them, namely the scoreless home encounter with Ascoli and the defeats at Juve Stabia and Padova. Still, the 3-0 loss at Juve Stabia and the 2-0 reverse at Padova are the outcomes that concern us most regarding their performances on the road.

Six meetings split evenly between the two sides

Across the last six head-to-head games, the two clubs are level. Pisa have two wins, two draws and two defeats, and Südtirol also have two wins. Each side has scored 10 goals. The most recent meeting ended 3-3 on 9 May 2025, after a 2-2 draw on 5 May 2024. Pisa beat Südtirol 2-1 away on 19 October 2024, while Südtirol took a 2-1 home win on 4 September 2022, and the two 2023 meetings also split evenly between the sides. Nothing in that record points towards either team, so we would not rely on it when assessing this match.

Why the head-to-head does not settle it

Pisa have beaten Südtirol twice in the six meetings, but both of Südtirol's wins came on different grounds, so the rivalry is evenly balanced, not one-sided.

With a full squad available, the odds tell the story

Neither squad has any injury or suspension news, so both sides should be close to their recent line-ups at kickoff. Pisa are the strong favourites in the market, with an implied 59% chance of victory (top price 1.62). A draw is priced at 23% (best odds 4.20), while a Südtirol victory sits at 18% (best odds 5.75). The bookmaker overround on the 1X2 market is 7.9%. The xG figures from the market point to around 2 for Pisa and 1 for Südtirol, roughly 3 goals in total, and these numbers reflect what the odds imply rather than our own projection.

For us, the real value is hiding in the Asian handicap markets. Pisa -1 is available at 48% (best odds 2.05), while Pisa -0.75 comes in at 55% (best odds 1.80). Südtirol +1 sits at 52% (best odds 1.82). Bookmakers are pricing in a Pisa victory, yet they don't expect it to be a comfortable one.

Our tip: Pisa -0.75, not the plain win

Our top pick is Pisa -0.75 (Asian handicap) at odds 1.80, chance 55%. We divide the money equally between Pisa -1 and Pisa -0.5. The -1 portion needs Pisa to win by two or more, and if they win by exactly one, half of that portion comes back. The -0.5 portion needs Pisa to win by at least one. In the most likely scores, a 1-0 win for Pisa refunds half the money, a 2-0 wins outright, a 1-1 loses, a 2-1 refunds half, and both a 3-0 and a 3-1 win.

Four factors back this pick. Pisa have dropped just one of their last five across all competitions, whereas Südtirol have failed to win any of theirs. Pisa also occupy the higher spot in the table, 15 points against 14. Their home record of two wins from five is unremarkable, yet it still beats Südtirol's away form in this competition. The price on our tip, Pisa -0.75, is 1.80, which implies 55%, and that looks reasonable for the team holding the advantage.

Another tip: Over 2.5 goals

Our number two pick is Over 2.5 goals at odds 1.82, chance 54%. In all competitions, Pisa have cleared 2.5 goals in three of their last five games, and the projected total of roughly three goals lands right on that threshold. The wager collects with 2-1, 3-0 and 3-1 and falls short with 1-0, 2-0 and 1-1. It does not fit cleanly alongside the handicap: a 2-1 Pisa victory settles the goals bet completely, yet the handicap stake gets back only half, so we view the two as independent calls.

Alternative selections worth a look at these prices

If you're chasing a shorter price, Over 1.5 goals at 1.27 (chance 76%) is the safest of the goal lines. It cashes once two or more goals go in, which sits comfortably with the expected total of around three. For a more cautious home backer, Pisa +0 at 1.23 (chance 77%) wins on a Pisa victory, returns the stake on a draw and loses only if Südtirol win. Pisa -0.25 at 1.41 (chance 67%) is the middle ground: half on Pisa -0.5 and half on Pisa +0, meaning a draw hands back half the stake, while a Pisa win collects on both halves.

Pisa to win, but probably not by much

Our read is that Pisa should collect the three points, and the -0.75 handicap at 1.80 suits that view best. A win by two goals or more pays out completely, while a one-goal margin gives back half of the stake. If you lean toward a high-scoring game instead, Over 2.5 at 1.82 offers another route. At these prices, we would avoid Südtirol, and we would also skip the draw at 4.20. Both 1-0 and 1-1 look like believable scorelines. In a 1-0, half the handicap stake comes back; in a 1-1, the whole handicap stake is lost.