Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
QPR play Burnley at home on 3 November 2026 · 19:45 at Loftus Road (London); the referee is Tom Reeves. For us, QPR (49%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
QPR vs Burnley: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. QPR are 11th in the table, on 21 points after 14 matches (5W 6D 3L), and Burnley are 22nd, on 10 points (1W 7D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average QPR score 1.6 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.2; for Burnley the figures are 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. QPR: 5W 5D 3L, goals 21–16; Burnley: 1W 6D 6L, goals 17–25.
- Head to head. From 10 meetings: 2 wins for QPR, 5 wins for Burnley and 3 draws, with the goals at 8–17.
What to expect
For us, QPR are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (11.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.47), and we rate it at 66%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 57% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 55% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 10; QPR 2 wins, 3 draws, Burnley 5 wins.
- An average of 2.5 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: QPR 21–16, Burnley 17–25.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 55%.
- Out: QPR 5, Burnley 12.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 57%, best price 1.67). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for QPR: R. Burrell, J. Clarke-Salter, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue. Absent for Burnley: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, A. Broja, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, D. Satpaev, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
QPR vs Burnley: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 1.97 | 3.80 | 3.93 |
| Market average | 1.91 | 3.64 | 3.77 |
| Lowest odds | 1.87 | 3.37 | 3.57 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.24 | 1.22 | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.78 | 1.73 | 54.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.18 | 2.08 | 45.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.74 | 34.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.67 | 1.63 | 57.2% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.17 | 42.8% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 3/11/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.3%.
At a glance
- Likely result: QPR 1–1 Burnley, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: QPR 11th (21 points), Burnley 22nd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: QPR 5W 5D 3L (21:16), Burnley 1W 6D 6L (17:25).
- H2H: 10 matches: QPR 2W 3D 5L, goals 8–17.
- Absences: QPR 5, Burnley 12.
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
QPR vs Burnley: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
QPR vs Burnley: team news and absences
QPR
- R. Burrellnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Clarke-Salternot in the squad · will miss the match
- T. Lampteynot in the squad · will miss the match
- N. Madseninjury · will miss the match
- A. S. Mbengueknee injury · will miss the match
Burnley
- Z. Amdouniankle injury · will miss the match
- B. Amosnot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Barnesnot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Beyerhamstring injury · will miss the match
- A. Brojainjury · will miss the match
- J. Bruun Larseninjury · will miss the match
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury · will miss the match
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. Obafeminot in the squad · will miss the match
- S. Sambonot in the squad · will miss the match
- D. Satpaevnot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiyenot in the squad · will miss the match
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 | QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
QPR
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
QPRDLWLWBurnleyDDLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for QPR vs Burnley?
Draw or Burnley (X2) (1.93); Under 3.5 goals (1.47).
Who will win QPR vs Burnley?
We estimate: QPR win 49%, draw 26%, Burnley win 25%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 3 November 2026, kick-off: 19:45, venue: Loftus Road, London. Referee: Tom Reeves.
Who will be missing?
QPR: R. Burrell, J. Clarke-Salter, T. Lamptey, N. Madsen, A. S. Mbengue. Burnley: Z. Amdouni, B. Amos, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, A. Broja, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, S. Sambo, D. Satpaev, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 55% (odds 1.78); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 45% (odds 2.18).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 57% (odds 1.67).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.3%), then 1–0 (9.8%) and 2–1 (9.6%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.