Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 2–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
It is Bournemouth against Leeds on 31 October 2026 · 15:00 at Vitality Stadium (Bournemouth), and Michael Salisbury will referee. This one looks too close to call. Below you can read our tip, the result probabilities, team news and analysis.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Bournemouth are 8th in the table, on 12 points after 9 matches (3W 3D 3L), and Leeds are 12th, on 11 points (2W 5D 2L).
- Attack and defence. On average Bournemouth score 1.5 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.6; for Leeds the figures are 1.1 scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Bournemouth: 2W 3D 3L, goals 12–13; Leeds: 2W 5D 1L, goals 9–6.
- Head to head. From 9 meetings: 3 wins for Bournemouth, 4 wins for Leeds and 2 draws, with the goals at 19–16.
What to expect
For us, Bournemouth are the more likely winners. We estimate a 2–1 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–1 (12.2%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and we rate it at 55%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 55% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 9; Bournemouth 3 wins, 2 draws, Leeds 4 wins.
- An average of 3.9 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Bournemouth 12–13, Leeds 9–6.
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 55%, best price 1.70). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Absent for Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.17 | 3.56 | 3.70 |
| Market average | 2.12 | 3.38 | 3.51 |
| Lowest odds | 2.05 | 3.08 | 3.01 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | 1.28 | 74.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 50.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | 1.93 | 49.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.40 | 3.20 | 29.6% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.68 | 55.3% |
| BTTS – no | 2.20 | 2.08 | 44.7% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 31/10/26, 09:22. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.4%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Bournemouth 1–1 Leeds, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Bournemouth 8th (12 points), Leeds 12th (11 points).
- Form in the competition: Bournemouth 2W 3D 3L (12:13), Leeds 2W 5D 1L (9:6).
- H2H: 9 matches: Bournemouth 3W 2D 4L, goals 19–16.
- Absences: Bournemouth 3, Leeds 4.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Bournemouth vs Leeds: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Bournemouth vs Leeds: team news and absences
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
Leeds
- M. Josephknee injury · will miss the match
- J. Rodonmuscle injury · will miss the match
- D. Jamesback injury · doubtful
- A. Stachfoot injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 | Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 |  Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Bournemouth
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
BournemouthWWWLLLeedsLDDLDHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Bournemouth vs Leeds?
Over 2.5 goals (1.95); Bournemouth or draw (1X) (1.32).
Who will win Bournemouth vs Leeds?
We estimate: Bournemouth win 45%, draw 28%, Leeds win 27%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 31 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. Referee: Michael Salisbury.
Who will be missing?
Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth. Leeds: M. Joseph, J. Rodon, D. James, A. Stach. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.95); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 2.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 55% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.2%), then 1–0 (10.6%) and 2–1 (9.1%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
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