Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 0–3. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Manchester United v Bournemouth: 25 October 2026 · 14:00 at Old Trafford (Manchester), with Jarred Gillett refereeing. We see little between the teams. Scroll down for the tip, the chances of each outcome, absences and our breakdown of the game.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Manchester United are 17th in the table, on 7 points after 9 matches (1W 4D 4L), and Bournemouth are 8th, on 12 points (3W 3D 3L).
- Attack and defence. On average Manchester United score 1.4 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.4; for Bournemouth the figures are 1.3 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Manchester United: 1W 4D 2L, goals 10–10; Bournemouth: 1W 3D 3L, goals 9–13.
- Head to head. From 20 meetings: 10 wins for Manchester United, 5 wins for Bournemouth and 5 draws, with the goals at 39–29.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.1%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
What stands out is that the table favours the Bournemouth, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the home side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and we rate it at 58%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 53% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 20; Manchester United 10 wins, 5 draws, Bournemouth 5 wins.
- An average of 3.4 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Manchester United 10–10, Bournemouth 9–13.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 53%.
- Out: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.62). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Absent for Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.49 | 3.55 | 3.08 |
| Market average | 2.41 | 3.45 | 2.94 |
| Lowest odds | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.80 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.27 | 1.25 | 75.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.86 | 1.80 | 53.2% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.04 | 46.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.88 | 32.9% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.61 | 57.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.30 | 2.21 | 42.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 25/10/26, 13:09. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 4.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Manchester United 1–1 Bournemouth, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Manchester United 17th (7 points), Bournemouth 8th (12 points).
- Form in the competition: Manchester United 1W 4D 2L (10:10), Bournemouth 1W 3D 3L (9:13).
- H2H: 20 matches: Manchester United 10W 5D 5L, goals 39–29.
- Absences: Manchester United 7, Bournemouth 5.
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Manchester United vs Bournemouth: team news and absences
Manchester United
- P. Dorguhamstring injury · will miss the match
- K. Mainooinjury · will miss the match
- B. Seskoabsence · will miss the match
- L. Shawinjury · will miss the match
- M. Ugarteknee injury · will miss the match
- L. Martinezmuscle injury · doubtful
- M. Rashfordhip injury · doubtful
Bournemouth
- J. Araujothigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Scottthigh injury · will miss the match
- A. Tothmuscle injury · will miss the match
- E. J. Kroupifoot injury · doubtful
- V. Milosavljevicabsence · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Arsenal | 9 | 8-0-1 | 14:5 | 24 |
| 2 |  Manchester City | 9 | 7-0-2 | 20:10 | 21 |
| 3 |  Brighton | 9 | 6-1-2 | 24:7 | 19 |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 9 | 5-1-3 | 19:15 | 16 |
| 5 |  Liverpool | 9 | 4-3-2 | 11:9 | 15 |
| 6 |  Brentford | 9 | 3-5-1 | 16:9 | 14 |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 3-4-2 | 9:9 | 13 |
| 8 | Bournemouth | 9 | 3-3-3 | 14:13 | 12 |
| 9 |  Tottenham | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:10 | 12 |
| 10 |  Aston Villa | 9 | 3-3-3 | 10:13 | 12 |
| 11 |  Hull City | 9 | 2-5-2 | 11:10 | 11 |
| 12 |  Leeds | 9 | 2-5-2 | 9:8 | 11 |
| 13 |  Newcastle | 9 | 3-2-4 | 12:15 | 11 |
| 14 |  Ipswich | 9 | 3-2-4 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 15 |  Fulham | 9 | 2-3-4 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 16 |  Coventry | 9 | 3-0-6 | 9:16 | 9 |
| 17 | Manchester United | 9 | 1-4-4 | 10:15 | 7 |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 9 | 2-1-6 | 9:21 | 7 |
| 19 |  Nottingham Forest | 9 | 1-3-5 | 6:12 | 6 |
| 20 |  Sunderland | 9 | 1-2-6 | 7:17 | 5 |
Recent matches
Manchester United
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
Manchester UnitedLLDDDBournemouthWWWLLHead to head
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
Over 2.5 goals (1.86); Manchester United or draw (1X) (1.45).
Who will win Manchester United vs Bournemouth?
We estimate: Manchester United win 40%, draw 28%, Bournemouth win 33%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 25 October 2026, kick-off: 14:00, venue: Old Trafford, Manchester. Referee: Jarred Gillett.
Who will be missing?
Manchester United: P. Dorgu, K. Mainoo, B. Sesko, L. Shaw, M. Ugarte, L. Martinez, M. Rashford. Bournemouth: J. Araujo, A. Scott, A. Toth, E. J. Kroupi, V. Milosavljevic. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 53% (odds 1.86); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 47% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.1%), then 1–0 (9.3%) and 2–1 (8.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.