Cardiff vs Burnley: prediction, tip and odds, 7 November 2026, Championship

Cardiff vs Burnley betting prediction

Cardiff host Burnley at the Cardiff City Stadium on 7 November 2026, with a 15:00 kick-off. On the Championship table alone, the gap looks wide: Cardiff are 17th with 14 points from 13 matches, Burnley 22nd with 9 from the same number. Those are this competition's figures only, and they tell us more about the home side's ability to take points at home than about either side's wider form.

Which Cardiff turn up after Wolves?

Cardiff's last five matches in all competitions brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. The most recent result was a 3-0 defeat at Wolves, which followed a 1-0 home win over Birmingham. Earlier in that run came a 5-1 win over Watford and a 2-2 draw at Middlesbrough, so the side has shown both the goals and the holes. We find that unsettling, but not alarming.

Burnley's sequence is the one we keep returning to. They won 4-0 at Watford, then drew 2-2 with Charlton at home, lost 2-1 to Wolves at home and went down 4-1 at Lincoln. Their last game was a goalless draw with Portsmouth on 31 October. Across those five, the record reads one win, two draws and two defeats, with 8 scored and 8 conceded. Only one win in five is a poor return for a side sitting 22nd, and we would not dress it up.

Goals at home and on the road

This is where the table earns its place in the argument. Cardiff have scored 19 and conceded 20 in the Championship, but at home they have scored 13 and let in 6, with three wins and three draws and no defeats. Burnley have scored 17 and conceded 25, and away they have managed 9 scored against 15 conceded, with one win, one draw and four defeats.

Put simply, Cardiff's home ground is the place where they have been hardest to beat, and Burnley's away results are the weakest part of their league season. We do not think that settles the match, but it tells us where the pressure is likely to sit.

What the meetings say, and what they do not

The head-to-head record is almost level. In the last 14 meetings Cardiff have won three, drawn six and lost five, and Burnley have scored 20 goals to Cardiff's 14. That goal count is the one figure that leans towards the visitors, but we would not build a case on it.

The two most recent meetings split the points. Burnley won 1-2 at Cardiff on 4 March 2025, and Cardiff won 1-2 at Burnley on 23 September 2025. Six draws in 14 games say this rivalry has been more stalemate than story, and nothing in the recent results suggests one side has pulled clear.

Anyone missing before kick-off?

Neither club has reported any absentees for this match, so both teams can be judged as they stand on paper. There is no injury or suspension story to weigh against the form, which leaves the decision to the record and the price.

Should we back Cardiff at 1.62?

Our tip is Cardiff to win at odds 1.62 (chance 62%). We like it for three reasons. Burnley have won only one of their last five matches. Cardiff sit 17th with 14 points and Burnley 22nd with 9, a gap that the odds do not fully reflect. And at home Cardiff have won three, drawn three and lost none in this competition, which is the record that makes a side at 1.62 look sensible to us. The market's 62% is the bookmakers' chance for a Cardiff win, and it describes what they expect, not how often Cardiff have won. We think the home form supports a little more confidence than that price implies.

The bet settles as follows on the likeliest scores (home-away): 1-1 loses; 1-0 wins; 2-1 wins; 0-1 loses; 1-2 loses; 2-0 wins. The draw is the risk, and 1-1 is the single most likely exact score at 12.2%. The market's expected goals of 1 for each side, about 2 in total, point to a game that could easily stall, and that is exactly the outcome that costs us here. The draw is priced at 26% with best odds of 3.64, and the bookmaker margin on the match result is 7.0%, so we are not getting a bargain, only a fair read.

We are not adding any other bets to this page. The Cardiff win at 1.62 is the one we stand by.

Last word before the whistle

Burnley's away form and Cardiff's home record are the two numbers that matter most, and both lean the same way. If the match stays level for long, the draw will come up, and we would accept that risk at these odds.