Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–2. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Burnley play Wolves at home on 16 October 2026 · 20:00 at Turf Moor (Burnley); the referee is Lewis Smith, England. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Burnley vs Wolves: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Burnley are 22nd in the table, on 10 points after 14 matches (1W 7D 6L), and Wolves are 2nd, on 27 points (8W 3D 3L).
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–2 score estimate, roughly 3 goals in all, and 1–1 (11.9%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.62), and we rate it at 58%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 58% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 54% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 54%.
- Out: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 58%, best price 1.62). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Burnley: no absences. Absent for Wolves: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Burnley vs Wolves: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 3.07 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| Market average | 2.98 | 3.51 | 2.26 |
| Lowest odds | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.18 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.26 | 1.23 | 75.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | 1.76 | 53.6% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.10 | 2.03 | 46.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.08 | 2.81 | 33.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.62 | 1.60 | 58.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.21 | 42.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 16/10/26, 18:00. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.5%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Burnley 1–1 Wolves, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Burnley 22nd (10 points), Wolves 2nd (27 points).
- Absences: Burnley 0, Wolves 0.
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Burnley vs Wolves: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Burnley vs Wolves: team news and absences
Burnley
- No reported absences
Wolves
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 | Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 |  Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Burnley vs Wolves?
Over 2.5 goals (1.85); Draw or Wolves (X2) (1.36).
Who will win Burnley vs Wolves?
We estimate: Burnley win 32%, draw 27%, Wolves win 42%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 16 October 2026, kick-off: 20:00, venue: Turf Moor, Burnley. Referee: Lewis Smith, England.
Who will be missing?
Burnley: no absences. Wolves: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 54% (odds 1.85); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 46% (odds 2.10).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 58% (odds 1.62).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (11.9%), then 0–1 (9.1%) and 1–2 (8.9%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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