Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 4–1. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Lincoln play Burnley at home on 24 October 2026 · 15:00 at Sincil Bank (Lincoln); the referee is Thomas Parsons, England. For us, there is no clear favourite. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Lincoln vs Burnley: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Lincoln are 19th in the table, on 15 points after 14 matches (4W 3D 7L), and Burnley are 22nd, on 10 points (1W 7D 6L).
- Attack and defence. On average Lincoln score 0.8 goals a match in the competition and concede 1.7; for Burnley the figures are 1.5 scored and 1.9 conceded.
- Form in the competition. Lincoln: 3W 3D 5L, goals 9–19; Burnley: 1W 5D 5L, goals 16–21.
- Head to head. From 2 meetings: 2 wins for Lincoln, 0 wins for Burnley and 0 draws, with the goals at 5–1.
What to expect
We see an evenly matched game, with a 1–1 score estimate, roughly 2 goals in all, and 1–1 (12.4%) the most probable single result. Not much should separate the teams.
What stands out is that the table favours the Lincoln, whereas the betting market leans slightly towards the away side. When the indicators disagree like this, the match is difficult to read, and a more careful bet is the sensible choice.
In the goals market we pick Both teams to score (odds 1.70), and we rate it at 56%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 56% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 50% chance.
Prediction summary
- Meetings: 2; Lincoln 2 wins, 0 draws, Burnley 0 wins.
- An average of 3.0 goals per meeting between these teams.
- In the competition, goals scored–conceded: Lincoln 9–19, Burnley 16–21.
- Expected: roughly 2 goals; over 2.5 goals: 50%.
- Out: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes
Alternative tip: BTTS – yes (probability 56%, best price 1.70). With roughly 2 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Lincoln: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Absent for Burnley: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Lincoln vs Burnley: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 2.88 | 3.53 | 2.55 |
| Market average | 2.75 | 3.41 | 2.49 |
| Lowest odds | 2.65 | 3.30 | 2.40 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.31 | 1.27 | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.93 | 1.88 | 50.3% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.95 | 1.90 | 49.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3.30 | 3.11 | 30.0% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.70 | 1.66 | 55.9% |
| BTTS – no | 2.25 | 2.11 | 44.1% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 24/10/26, 13:58. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 6.0%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Lincoln 1–1 Burnley, roughly 2 goals in total.
- Table: Lincoln 19th (15 points), Burnley 22nd (10 points).
- Form in the competition: Lincoln 3W 3D 5L (9:19), Burnley 1W 5D 5L (16:21).
- H2H: 2 matches: Lincoln 2W 0D 0L, goals 5–1.
- Absences: Lincoln 5, Burnley 15.
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Lincoln vs Burnley: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Lincoln vs Burnley: team news and absences
Lincoln
- T. Darikwaknee injury · will miss the match
- F. Draperabsence · will miss the match
- T. Hamerred card · will miss the match
- M. Meliathigh injury · will miss the match
- E. Wheatleynot in the squad · will miss the match
Burnley
- E. Agyeiabsence · will miss the match
- A. Ahmedhodzicknock · will miss the match
- Z. Amdouniankle injury · will miss the match
- A. Barnesmuscle injury · will miss the match
- J. Beyerhamstring injury · will miss the match
- J. Bruun Larseninjury · will miss the match
- B. Humphreysmuscle injury · will miss the match
- H. Mejbrihamstring injury · will miss the match
- M. Obafeminot in the squad · will miss the match
- A. Ramseyhamstring injury · will miss the match
- S. Sambonot in the squad · will miss the match
- M. Tresor Ndayishimiyenot in the squad · will miss the match
- J. Vardyinjury · will miss the match
- J. Banelmuscle injury · doubtful
- J. Cullenknee injury · doubtful
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Middlesbrough | 14 | 8-4-2 | 30:19 | 28 |
| 2 |  Wolves | 14 | 8-3-3 | 25:17 | 27 |
| 3 |  Birmingham | 14 | 7-5-2 | 26:13 | 26 |
| 4 |  Stoke City | 14 | 8-2-4 | 22:17 | 26 |
| 5 |  Swansea | 14 | 8-2-4 | 21:16 | 26 |
| 6 |  West Brom | 14 | 7-4-3 | 20:15 | 25 |
| 7 |  Southampton | 14 | 8-4-2 | 29:14 | 24 |
| 8 |  West Ham | 14 | 6-5-3 | 36:21 | 23 |
| 9 |  Sheffield United | 14 | 6-4-4 | 20:17 | 22 |
| 10 |  Portsmouth | 14 | 6-4-4 | 19:16 | 22 |
| 11 |  QPR | 14 | 5-6-3 | 22:17 | 21 |
| 12 |  Norwich | 14 | 6-0-8 | 27:24 | 18 |
| 13 |  Millwall | 14 | 5-3-6 | 23:24 | 18 |
| 14 |  Blackburn | 14 | 5-3-6 | 20:22 | 18 |
| 15 |  Bristol City | 14 | 5-3-6 | 16:19 | 18 |
| 16 |  Wrexham | 14 | 4-5-5 | 17:19 | 17 |
| 17 |  Bolton | 14 | 5-2-7 | 19:26 | 17 |
| 18 |  Cardiff | 14 | 3-6-5 | 22:23 | 15 |
| 19 | Lincoln | 14 | 4-3-7 | 14:24 | 15 |
| 20 |  Watford | 14 | 4-2-8 | 13:23 | 14 |
| 21 |  Charlton | 14 | 3-5-6 | 11:22 | 14 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | 1-7-6 | 18:26 | 10 |
| 23 |  Derby | 14 | 1-4-9 | 11:29 | 7 |
| 24 |  Preston | 14 | 1-2-11 | 12:30 | 5 |
Recent matches
Lincoln
Home and away
Team comparison
Only this season's games so far are used, which means a small sample.
Form in the competition
LincolnLLWDLBurnleyDDLLDHead to head
All matchesReturns calculator
Questions and answers
What do we tip for Lincoln vs Burnley?
Lincoln +0.25 (Asian handicap) (1.76); Both teams to score (1.70).
Who will win Lincoln vs Burnley?
We estimate: Lincoln win 34%, draw 28%, Burnley win 38%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 24 October 2026, kick-off: 15:00, venue: Sincil Bank, Lincoln. Referee: Thomas Parsons, England.
Who will be missing?
Lincoln: T. Darikwa, F. Draper, T. Hamer, M. Melia, E. Wheatley. Burnley: E. Agyei, A. Ahmedhodzic, Z. Amdouni, A. Barnes, J. Beyer, J. Bruun Larsen, B. Humphreys, H. Mejbri, M. Obafemi, A. Ramsey, S. Sambo, M. Tresor Ndayishimiye, J. Vardy, J. Banel, J. Cullen. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 50% (odds 1.93); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 50% (odds 1.95).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 56% (odds 1.70).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–1 as most likely (12.4%), then 0–1 (9.5%) and 1–0 (9.2%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
More predictions
18+ · Any bet can be lost. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome. Bet responsibly.