Bet with Freshbet →Played: final score 1–0. The tip and analysis below are as they were before kick-off.
Hamburger SV play VfB Stuttgart at home on 17 October 2026 · 14:30 at Volksparkstadion (Hamburger); the referee is Robert Hartmann, Germany. For us, VfB Stuttgart (53%) are favourites. Our tip, estimated probabilities, absences and a match analysis are below.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: analysis of the match
What our tip is based on
- Table. Hamburger SV are 15th in the table, on 9 points after 8 matches (3W 0D 5L), and VfB Stuttgart are 11th, on 9 points (3W 0D 5L).
What to expect
For us, VfB Stuttgart are the more likely winners. We estimate a 1–2 score, roughly 3 goals in all, with 1–2 (9.3%) the most probable single result. Goals at both ends are likely in an open game.
In the goals market we pick Under 3.5 goals (odds 1.89), and we rate it at 52%. Our numbers give both teams scoring a 67% chance and more than 2.5 goals a 67% chance.
Prediction summary
- Expected: roughly 3 goals; over 2.5 goals: 67%.
- Out: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals
Alternative tip: Over 3.5 goals (probability 48%, best price 2.06). With roughly 3 goals expected, it fits the picture.
Absences
Absent for Hamburger SV: no absences. Absent for VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Team news may change, so check it again before kick-off.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: compare the odds
| Match result | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best price | 4.21 | 4.21 | 1.86 |
| Market average | 3.93 | 4.15 | 1.80 |
| Lowest odds | 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.75 |
| Goals | Best | Average | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.11 | 1.08 | 85.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.42 | 1.38 | 67.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.00 | 2.87 | 32.5% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.06 | 2.01 | 47.7% |
| BTTS – yes | 1.40 | 1.39 | 67.0% |
| BTTS – no | 2.90 | 2.82 | 33.0% |
Prices from several bookmakers, combined and updated 17/10/26, 12:01. They are for guidance and can differ at any one operator. Margin, on average: 5.2%.
At a glance
- Likely result: Hamburger SV 1–2 VfB Stuttgart, roughly 3 goals in total.
- Table: Hamburger SV 15th (9 points), VfB Stuttgart 11th (9 points).
- Absences: Hamburger SV 0, VfB Stuttgart 0.
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our estimate uses odds from several bookmakers after removing the margin. It does not guarantee any result.
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: more betting tips
Fair odds = 1 / probability. Value exists when the best odds available are above the fair odds. Likely ≥ 60%, possible 50–60%, outsider < 50%.
Tips on corners and cards
Correct score prediction
Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: team news and absences
Hamburger SV
- No reported absences
VfB Stuttgart
- No reported absences
Changes are possible before kick-off.
Standings and form
| # | Team | P | W-D-L | Goals | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5-3-0 | 27:8 | 18 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 5-3-0 | 14:6 | 18 |
| 3 |  SC Freiburg | 8 | 5-1-2 | 18:10 | 16 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5-0-3 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4-3-1 | 17:14 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4-1-3 | 18:16 | 13 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 8 | 4-1-3 | 16:16 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3-2-3 | 13:18 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3-1-4 | 17:17 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2-3-3 | 18:15 | 9 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:15 | 9 |
| 12 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 8 | 3-0-5 | 14:16 | 9 |
| 13 |  1. FC Köln | 8 | 2-3-3 | 9:12 | 9 |
| 14 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 8 | 2-3-3 | 6:9 | 9 |
| 15 | Hamburger SV | 8 | 3-0-5 | 7:19 | 9 |
| 16 |  Union Berlin | 8 | 1-4-3 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 |  FC Schalke 04 | 8 | 1-3-4 | 4:9 | 6 |
| 18 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 8 | 1-1-6 | 11:22 | 4 |
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Questions and answers
What do we tip for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hamburger SV +1.25 (Asian handicap) (1.56); Under 3.5 goals (1.89).
Who will win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
We estimate: Hamburger SV win 24%, draw 23%, VfB Stuttgart win 53%.
Where and when is the game being played?
Date: 17 October 2026, kick-off: 14:30, venue: Volksparkstadion, Hamburger. Referee: Robert Hartmann, Germany.
Who will be missing?
Hamburger SV: no absences. VfB Stuttgart: no absences. Changes are possible before kick-off.
Will the match produce over 2.5 goals?
We estimate over 2.5 goals at 67% (odds 1.42); for fewer than 2.5 the figure is 33% (odds 3.00).
Will both teams score?
By our estimate, both teams score with a probability of 67% (odds 1.40).
Which correct score is the likeliest?
We rate 1–2 as most likely (9.3%), then 1–1 (8.9%) and 0–2 (6.7%).
What are your predictions based on?
We start from the prices of several bookmakers, remove their margin and average them to get probabilities; a Poisson distribution then gives us the expected goals and the most probable scores. Form, head to head and absences appear on the page as extra context. We publish predictions purely as information, and none of them promises a winning outcome.
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